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Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions
By Ethan Matthew,
4 hours ago
The Houston Astros (61-55) face the Boston Red Sox (61-54) on Sunday to end their 3-game series. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Red Soxodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Astros lead 2-0, winning 5-4 Saturday and 8-4 Friday
The Red Sox hope to avoid the sweep Sunday in the face of a surging Astros team that have won 4 in a row.
Houston jumped out to an early lead on the 1st of 2 HRs by LF Yordan Alvarez. Home runs were common in this game with the teams combining for 6 deep shots, and all but 2 runs coming on homers. Astros rookie RHP Spencer Arrighetti struck out a season-high 13 over 7 IP as Boston batters struck out 15 times in the loss.
Astros at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Hunter Brown vs. LHP
James Paxton
Brown (9-7, 3.98 ERA) makes his 23rd start and 24th appearance. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 122 IP.
Last start: No decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-3 road loss at Texas Rangers Monday
2024 road stats: 5-4, 4.30 ERA (60 2/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 in 12 appearances (11 starts)
First time facing Red Sox
Paxton (9-3, 4.42 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 99 2/3 IP.
Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 9-5 road win at Kansas City Royals Monday
2024 home stats: 4-1, 3.35 ERA (43 IP, 16 ER), 1.37 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 in 8 starts
Is 8-5 with a 3.72 ERA in 15 starts vs. Astros
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Moneyline (ML): Astros -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Red Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+120) | Red Sox +1.5 (-145)
Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Astros at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 6, Astros 3
The Astros are 14-17 (45.2%) as a road favorite, which is the 3rd-worst record, higher than only the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox. Boston on the other hand is 10-7 (58.8%) as a home dog, top 5 in baseball.
I like the Red Sox to avoid the sweep.
BET RED SOX (+110).
Since I am backing Boston in this game, I certainly like them at +1.5. However, I want the value of grabbing them at plus-money straight up, so I will PASS.
Houston has MLB’s best Under record as a favorite at 49-30-4 record (62%). And while Boston has a 55.6% Over rate during the season, when they play at home it is a less certain 49.1%.
LEAN UNDER 10 (-105).
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