Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

The Washington Nationals (55-66) and Philadelphia Phillies (70-50) open a 4-game set at Citizens Bank Park Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 5-1

The Nationals split a 2-game set at the Baltimore Orioles, wrapping up the series with a 4-1 loss as +154 underdogs Wednesday with the Under (9) hitting. Washington is 4th in the NL East, 15½ games back of the division-leading Phillies, and has a less than 0.1% chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.com.

The Phillies also split a midweek 2-game series. After losing 5-0 as -200 favorites in the Tuesday opener, Philadelphia won 9-5 as a -157 favorite Wednesday as the Over (8.5) cashed. The Phillies have a 6-game lead over the 2nd-place Atlanta Braves in the NL East and are -800 at BetMGM Sportsbook to win the division.

Nationals at Phillies projected starters

LHP Mitchell Parker vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Parker (6-6, 3.83 ERA) makes his 22nd start. The rookie has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 112 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER (2 R), 8 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 3-2 home victory in 10 innings vs. Los Angeles Angels Friday
• 2024 road stats: 2-4, 4.78 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 11 starts
• Has never faced Phillies

Wheeler (11-5, 2.78 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 142 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 3-2 setback at Arizona Diamondbacks Friday
• 2024 home stats: 7-3, 2.48 ERA (76 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 in 12 starts
• 2024 vs. Nationals: 1-0, 1 home start (May 17), 7 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 4-2 win
• Career vs. Nationals: 13-15, 4.59 ERA (196 IP, 100 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 33 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Nationals at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:43 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Nationals +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Phillies -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (+110) | Phillies -1.5 (-135)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Nationals at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Nationals 2

The Phillies (-300) are 7-2 in Wheeler’s last 9 home starts, but it’s almost impossible to stay profitable in MLB betting into lines with this much vig.

PASS. Bet the run line and/or total instead.

Seven of Wheeler’s last 9 home starts have resulted in multi-run wins for Philadephia. Washington is just 8-13 straight up over its last 21 games, and its last 6 losses have been by 2 or more runs.

Parker has allowed 3 or more ER in 6 of his last 9 road starts, while Wheeler is the 2nd-favorite behind Braves SP Chris Sale to win the NL Cy Young (+200 at BetMGM Sportsbook). The pitching advantage for Philadelphia should be too overwhelming for the Nationals to keep it close.

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (-135).

The Under is 30-23-3 (56.6%) this season when the Phillies are home favorites, according to TeamRankings.com.

Wheeler has allowed 2 or fewer ER in 8 of his last 9 home starts. He should bounce back after a rough home outing (5 IP, 7 ER) against the New York Yankees July 29. The risk here is that the Phillies are capable of scoring enough runs against Parker to do most of the heavy lifting, but they’ve put up 5 or fewer in 4 of their last 5 games.

BET UNDER 8 (-105).

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips

SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Corey Scott on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Fantasy baseball help from BaseballHQ.com:

Subscribe now to dominate the competition.