San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and predictions

The San Diego Padres (69-53) and Colorado Rockies (44-78) open a 3-game set at Coors Field Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Rockies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Rockies lead 6-4

The Padres are coming off a 3-game sweep of the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates. They won 8-2 as -132 favorites in the Wednesday finale as the Over (8.5) hit. San Diego is tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for 2nd place in the NL West — 2 games back of the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers — and the top NL Wild Card spot.

The Rockies were swept in 3 games at the Arizona Diamondbacks. They wrapped up the series with an 11-4 loss as +183 underdogs Wednesday with the Over (9) cashing. Colorado is 5th in the NL West and owns the 2nd-worst record in MLB.

Padres at Rockies projected starters

RHP Matt Waldron vs. RHP Cal Quantrill

Waldron (7-9, 4.00 ERA) makes his 25th start. The 27-year-old rookie has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 132 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 9-8 victory in 10 innings at Miami Marlins Saturday
• 2024 road stats: 4-4, 3.55 ERA (71 IP, 28 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 13 starts
• Career vs. Rockies: 2-0, 1.54 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 2 starts in 2024

Quantrill (7-8, 4.56 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 122 1/3 IP.

• Had Monday start pushed back with forearm soreness
• Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 10-2 defeat at Padres Aug. 4
• 2024 home stats: 3-3, 3.95 ERA (57 IP, 25 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 10 starts
• Career vs. Padres: 2-1, 2.70 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 in 4 starts, including 1-1 with 3.48 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 4 ER) in 2 starts this year

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Padres at Rockies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:51 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Rockies +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (-115) | Rockies +1.5 (-105)
• Over/Under (O/U): 11.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Padres at Rockies picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 7, Rockies 3

The Padres (-165) are 19-4 since the All-Star break and have won the last 2 meetings between these teams. However, it’s hard to stay profitable long term in MLB betting into lines with this much vig.

PASS. Bet the run line and/or total instead.

The Padres won 10-2 in Waldron’s last start vs. Colorado and outscored the Pirates 13-3 in their most recent series. Twelve of San Diego’s 19 wins since the break have been by multiple runs, while Colorado has lost Quantrill’s last 2 starts by 3 or more.

BET PADRES -1.5 (-115).

Waldron has given up 3 or fewer ER in 14 of his last 17 starts, and Quantrill has allowed 3 or fewer in 3 of his last 4. The Padres will likely score 6 or more runs, but it may not be enough to cash the Over with such a high total.

BET UNDER 11.5 (-120).

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