Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates prediction, pick, start time, odds for UFC 305

Li Jingliang and Carlos Prates meet Saturday on the main card of UFC 305 at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.

Last event: 5-1

UFC main cards, 2024: 69-57-3

Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates UFC 305 preview

Jingliang (19-8 MMA, 11-6 UFC) is returning to action after the longest layoff of his professional career, which began in 2007. The 36-year-old welterweight lost a split decision to Daniel Rodriguez at UFC 279, and hasn’t competed since due to a spine injury. Although he’s traded wins and losses over his past six fights, Jingliang has become a fan favorite and has never lost two in a row in his professional career. … Prates (19-6 MMA, 2-0 UFC) is still building his name in the UFC, and has started off hot. So far in 2024, he won his debut by stopping Trevin Giles and won his second fight by finishing Charles Radtke. With a win here, he’ll have a strong case for a Newcomer of the Year award.

Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates UFC 305 expert pick, prediction

Opening the paid portion of the card is a potential welterweight war between Jingliang and Prates.

Jingliang, who has been out of action for nearly two years due to a neck injury, will finally make his long-awaited return to the octagon. In said time, Prates has stormed onto the UFC scene of the seventh season of Dana White’s Contender Series, producing highlight-reel stoppages every step of the way.

Although Jingliang is no stranger to kicks and their associated counters due to his Wushu Sanda background, Prates provides an interesting test given that he’s a southpaw striker who embraces the art of eight limbs (muay Thai).

Despite many thinking that Jingliang should’ve gotten the nod over Daniel Rodriguez in his last outing, “The Leech” is technically 0-1 against UFC-level southpaws and also lost to the stance-switching Keita Nakamura – a fighter who also primarily fights from southpaw.

Jingliang’s counters will still be lively in this stance pairing, I’m just not sure what version of the Chinese fighter we’ll be getting due to the serious injury layoff.

For that reason, I’ll semi-reluctantly side with Prates to become the first person to stop Jingliang with strikes, likely finding his liver come Round 2.

Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates UFC 305 odds

The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the Brazilian, listing Prates -350 and Jingliang +260 via FanDuel.

Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates UFC 305 start time, how to watch

As the main card opener, Jingliang and Prates are expected to walk out to the cage at approximately 10:15 p.m. ET. The fight will air on ESPN+ pay-per-view.