Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

The Minnesota Twins (70-54) and San Diego Padres (70-55) open a 3-game set at Petco Park Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Twins won 2-1 last year

The Twins are coming off a 3-1 series win at the Texas Rangers. They lost 6-5 in 10 innings as +102 underdogs in the Sunday finale as the Over (7.5) hit. Minnesota had a 95.1% win probability, according to ESPN Analytics, heading into the 7th inning with a 4-0 lead. Minnesota is 2nd in the AL East, 2 games back of the division-leading Cleveland Guardians, and in the 2nd AL Wild Card spot.

The Padres lost 2 of 3 at the Colorado Rockies over the weekend after a franchise record-tying 8 consecutive series wins. They wrapped up the set with a 3-2 loss as -189 favorites Sunday with the Under (11.5) cashing. The 2nd-place Padres are 3 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for the lead in the NL West and are the NL’s top Wild Card.

Twins at Padres projected starters

RHP Zebby Matthews vs. RHP Michael King

Matthews (1-0, 3.60 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 2 ER on 5 hits and no walks with 5 K’s in 5 IP in his MLB debut, a 13-3 home win over the Kansas City Royals Tuesday.

• Is No. 6 prospect in Twins organization
• 2024 stats with Triple-A St. Paul: 1-2, 5.68 ERA (19 IP, 12 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 in 4 starts

King (10-6, 3.19 ERA) makes his 24th start and 25th appearance. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 135 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 3-0 home victory over Pittsburgh Pirates Tuesday
• 2024 home stats: 2-4, 3.79 ERA (54 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 13.3 K/9 in 10 starts
• Career vs. Twins: 0-0, 2.45 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 6 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 3 appearances (1 start)

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Twins at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:53 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Twins +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Padres -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-175) | Padres -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Twins at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Twins 3

The PADRES (-160) are 20-6 since the All-Star break and seem to only underperform against bottom-of-the-barrel competition — 4 of their 6 losses were against the Rockies and Miami Marlins.

The Twins are 5-2 in their last 7, but sending out Matthews in his 2nd MLB start against King should be too much of a mismatch to overcome.

BET PADRES (-160).

The most likely scenario is a 1-run Padres win, but directionally, backing the Twins isn’t recommended in this spot.

PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.

For those who are looking for a plus-money play, Padres 3B Manny Machado has 6 HRs over his last 18 games and has a good chance to homer on national TV against a rookie making just his 2nd MLB start.

BET MACHADO OVER 0.5 HOME RUNS (+400).

The Under has hit in 4 of King’s last 6 starts and is 4-1 in the last 5 for the Twins. However, 7 is a key number in MLB totals, so avoid this play unless a 7.5 becomes available at -115 or better.

LEAN UNDER 7 (+100).

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