Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (73-51) and Atlanta Braves (66-58) meet Tuesday as they continue an NL East series at Truist Park. The opening mound delivery is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 4-2

Philadelphia had a 4-game win streak snapped with a 6-4 loss to the Washington Nationals Sunday. The Phillies have been streaky in the 2nd half: they already have 4 streaks of 3-or-more wins or losses.

Atlanta is back at home after a 6-4 road trip that took the club to Denver, San Francisco and Los Angeles. The Braves are looking to reverse a trend on struggles at home. They are just 6-13 at Truist since June 30.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez

Wheeler (12-5, 2.72 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 148 2/3 IP.

• Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 13-3 win vs. Washington Nationals Thursday
• Career vs. Braves: 12-7, 3.07 ERA (176 IP, 60 ER), 157 H, 54 BB, 178 K in 28 starts

Lopez (7-4, 2.06 ERA) is tabbed for his 20th start. He owns a 1.19 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 104 2/3 IP.

• Last outing: No-decision, 3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 9-2 win at New York Mets July 28
• Career vs. Phillies: 2-0, 2.57 ERA (14 IP, 4 ER), 10 H, 8 BB, 12 K in 2 starts
• Coming off the IL (forearm) for this start; tossed 71 pitches in 1 rehab outing

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Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:51 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Phillies -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Braves +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+125) | Braves +1.5 (-155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Braves 4

The Braves are just 2-6 over their last 8 series lid-lifters. Their home struggles include 5 straight losses at Truist Park.

Analytics peg both starting pitchers as being too far out over their skis with their season ERAs, but perhaps Lopez more so. Still, per ESPN Wheeler has held current Atlanta batters to an aggregate .634 OPS in past meetings. Also, the Philadelphia right-hander is making this start on 4 days’ rest; that’s been a very productive interval for him (.628 OPS allowed this season, .618 OPS allowed career).

Consider a partial-unit play on PHILADELPHIA (-140).

Both teams are slightly under the average total of 1-run games for the season. The Phils are a lean but only an actionable one with a +130 return. PASS.

The Over is 6-3 across the last 9 series meetings and 8-4 in the last 12.

The expected-vs.-actual pitcher numbers and Atlanta batting numbers tilt this game into a higher scoring one than what sets up with the pitching match-up.

There is solid value on the OVER 8.5 (+100).

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