Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

The Minnesota Twins (70-56) and San Diego Padres (72-55) tussle Wednesday as they close out a 3-game series at Petco Park. First pitch is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 2-0

Minnesota has dropped the 1st 2 games of this series and 3 in a row overall. On Wednesday, the Twins will look to avoid a 4th straight loss, something they have not endured since June 4-8 when they had a 5-game skid.

Surging San Diego is 13-3 since Aug. 3. The Friars have played .786 baseball (22-6) in the 2nd half.

Twins at Padres projected starters

RHP Simeon Woods Richardson vs. RHP Matt Waldron

Woods Richardson (4-3, 3.77 ERA) is tabbed for his 22nd start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 107 1/3 IP.

• Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 4-3 win at Texas Rangers Friday
• Has never faced Padres
• Has gone more than 5 innings in just 1 of his last 4 starts

Waldron (7-10, 4.29 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 138 1/3 IP.

• Last outing: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 7-3 loss at Colorado Rockies Friday
• Has never faced Twins
• Owns 8.24 ERA over his last 4 starts

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Twins at Padres odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:35 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Twins +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Padres -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-200) | Padres -1.5 (+164)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Twins at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Twins 3

The PADRES (-120) are 4-2 across their last 6 games against Minnesota.

San Diego has won 7 in a row; Minnesota has not been great on the road — the Twins are 34-32 away from Minneapolis.

Peg Woods Richardson’s surface ERA as being generous. He owns a 4.27 ERA, 1.31 WHIP on the road. Against inning-lead-off batters, the right-hander has benefited from a .254 batting average on balls in play; in high-leverage situations he has skated by with a .255 BABIP.

Waldron owns an ERA of 7.36 in his last 5 starts, and that misses the mark in communicating his skill displayed over that time. The 27-year-old does well to limit hard contact, but he’s been hurt by a high rate of fly balls leaving the yard and a large percentage of batters reaching base coming around to score runs.

The AL Central is an improved division but likely not to the degree of what shows in the standings, and San Diego has played a much tougher schedule.

BACK THE PADRES (-120).

More juice equals less interest in the play. AVOID.

Both clubs have actual-vs.-expected run-scoring and prevention numbers that show games being more high-scoring than what has been deserved.

Some recency bias against Waldron plays into the Under lean. So does a late-afternoon start time, with possible shadows affecting the hitting background.

TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 (-110).

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