Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

The Pittsburgh Pirates (59-67) welcome the Cincinnati Reds (62-65) to PNC Park Thursday to open a 4-game series. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Pirates lead 4-2

The Pirates sit last in the NL Central but have still been a competitive team this season. They lost 1-0 to the Texas Rangers Wednesday, losing the series 2-1. Pittsburgh is just 3-13 over its last 16 games. In home games throughout that span, it is 2-5. The Pirates are 29-32 at home this season and 70-56 against the spread (ATS).

The Reds, despite being just a few games ahead of the Pirates, are 3rd in the NL Central. They are coming off an 11-7 road win over the Toronto Blue Jays Wednesday. Cincinnati won 2 of 3 in the Toronto series, which followed being swept by the Kansas City Royals in 3 straight at home. The Reds are 31-31 on the road this season and 70-57 ATS.

Reds at Pirates projected starters

LHP Nick Lodolo vs. RHP Paul Skenes

Lodolo (9-5, 4.55 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 110 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 2 1/3 IP, 8 ER (8 R), 8 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 13-1 home loss to Royals Saturday
• 2024 away stats: 4-4, 6.09 ERA (54 2/3 IP, 37 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 11 starts
• Career vs. Pirates: 2-1, 2.95 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 13.7 K/9 in 3 starts

Skenes (7-2, 2.30 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 through 98 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER (2 R), 3 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 5-3 home win over Seattle Mariners Friday
• 2024 home stats: 4-1, 2.80 ERA (54 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 in 9 starts
• Career vs. Reds: 1-0, 1 home start (June 17), 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-1 win

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Reds at Pirates odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:09 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Reds +124 (bet $100 to win $124) | Pirates -146 (bet $146 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Reds +1.5 (-178) | Pirates -1.5 (+146)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)

Reds at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 5, Pirates 4

BET REDS (+124).

While Skenes has been solid for most of the season, he hasn’t been great at home as of late. The Pirates are 1-2 in his last 3 starts at PNC Park and 2-3 in his last 5 at home. He has allowed at least 2 ER in 4 straight home starts. Pittsburgh is also just 3-5 over its last 8 home games.

The Reds, who have been better on the road than at home this season, have won 6 of their last 10 away games and 3 of their last 4. They are 2-1 straight up in their last 3 road games as underdogs. Cincinnati has won Lodolo’s last 2 away starts as well.

Back REDS (+124).

PASS.

There’s no great value here. The Reds are far too expensive as run-line underdogs, and the Pirates are too risky as run-line favorites, especially considering how they’ve played over the last few weeks.

BET OVER 7.5 (+100).

The Reds have gone Over in 3 straight games, scoring at least 6 runs in 2 of those outings while allowing at least 7 in 2 contests as well. Cincinnati is 5-1-1 O/U in its last 7 and 3-1 O/U in Lodolo’s last 4 starts.

The Pirates are 4-3 O/U in their last 7 games, scoring at least 3 runs in 5 of their last 6. Both sides have the consistency to score at least a few and aid the total here. Back OVER 7.5 (+100).

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips

SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @nathanbeighle_ on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Fantasy baseball help from BaseballHQ.com:

Subscribe now to dominate the competition.