Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

The Baltimore Orioles (37-28) welcome the Houston Astros (33-29) to Oriole Park at Camden Yards for the opener of a 4-game series Thursday. First pitch is set for 7:08 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 3-0

The Astros lost to the Boston Red Sox 4-1 Wednesday, closing as a -130 favorite. They are riding a 2-game losing streak yet are still 3-2 over their last 5 games. Houston has been on fire over the last few weeks, going 11-3 over its last 14. It is a solid 33-29 on the road. The Astros are 64-62 against the spread (ATS). They swept the Orioles at home from June 21-23.

The Orioles, who are 37-28 straight up at home, lost to the New York Mets 4-3 on the road Wednesday. They closed as an underdog in all 3 games of that series, winning just once. Baltimore sits 2nd in the AL East, but has struggled as of late, going just 6-6 over its last 12. The Orioles are 71-57 ATS.

Astros at Orioles projected starters

RHP Spencer Arrighetti vs. RHP Corbin Burnes

Arrighetti (5-11, 5.20 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 110 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER (4 R), 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 5-4 home loss to the Chicago White Sox Friday
• 2024 away stats: 2-6, 6.09 ERA (54 2/3 IP, 37 ER), 1.63 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 in 11 starts
• First time facing Orioles

Burnes (12-5, 3.10 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 153 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 8 ER (8 R), 10 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 12-10 road loss to the Boston Red Sox Friday
• 2024 home stats: 6-3, 2.91 ERA (77 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 13 starts
• Career vs. Astros: 0-2, 6.23 ERA (13 IP, 9 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 3 appearances (2 starts)

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Astros at Orioles odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:02 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML) : Astros +134 (bet $100 to win $134) | Orioles -158 (bet $158 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Astros +1.5 (-154) | Orioles -1.5 (+128)
• Over/Under (O/U) : 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Astros at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 5, Astros 2

Moneyline

PASS .

The Orioles, with Burnes on the mound, are the better play here. But, their moneyline value isn’t worth the expensive tag on it. Take them as a run-line favorite for the better odds.

Run line/Against the spread

BET ORIOLES -1.5 (+128) .

The Orioles are 3-2 straight up in their last 5 home games, and in each victory, they won by at least 2 runs. Baltimore is 32-33 ATS at home, which ranks in the top half of the league.

The Orioles are also 3-1 ATS in Burnes’ last 4 starts while also being 51-50 ATS as a favorite, the 3rd-best covering rate as a favorite in majors. The Astros have cooled off after an electric start to the month and have scored just 13 runs over their last 4 games.

Take ORIOLES -1.5 (+128) .

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8 (-105) .

The Orioles are 2-6 O/U in their last 8 games, scoring 4 or fewer in 4 of their 5. Baltimore has limited teams to 5 or fewer in 5 straight games as well.

The Astros are 3-6 O/U in their last 9 games and are 50-72-4 O/U on the season. Houston has scored 3 or fewer in 4 of its last 8. Considering those trends, take UNDER 8 (-105) .

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