PSA president Ryan Hoge: 'People will still want to collect Michael Jordan cards 100 years from now'

HoopsHype sat down with authentication and grading company PSA president Ryan Hoge to discuss the Kobe Bryant special on PSA Magazine, the best Michael Jordan trading cards, staying vigilant against fake submissions, his favorite NBA cards and more.

Was the 2003-04 Upper Deck Exquisite Origins the turning point in the NBA trading card industry, where everything changed from then on?

Ryan Hoge: Yeah, I mean, that set’s release in the 2003 season – those boxes were retailing for $500 each, and back then, that was a very expensive, premium product. It coincided with LeBron‘s rookie season, so there was a lot of demand. And here we are, 20-plus years removed from that, and when people look back, that’s definitely an iconic set. The design, a lot of the autographs, and the patch cards they included were really noteworthy – huge patches, multicolored, and actual game-worn, not necessarily player-worn, but the real deal.

But even going back a few years before that, there were some other iconic releases, like some of the Skybox product releases in ’97, with the Precious Metal Gems set. That was 1997-98. That’s a really iconic set. The Metal Gems were numbered 1 to 100; the first 10 are green, and the cards numbered 11 through 100 are red. Those green PMGs (Precious Metal Gems) from that set are some of the most desirable basketball cards out there. In fact, common players from that set routinely sell for five figures, anywhere from $10,000 to $50,000. Iconic players like Kobe Bryant – his last green PMG sale was $2 million.

That’s the biggest sale for a Kobe Bryant card, the green PMG.

RH: Yeah, I think that PMG green holds the record. There was also a big sale last week: Goldin had a 2003 Upper Deck Ultimate Collection, the Logo Man card, which sold for about $1.6 million. That’s probably the second-highest sale.

We have that one as the third-highest in our ranking because there was a $1.7 million sale for a 1996-97 Topps Chrome Refractor Rookie card at a Golden auction in March 2021.

RH: Ah, okay. That was at the peak, when the market values got then really frothy, but I do remember that.

PSA Magazine chose Kobe's top 10 most iconic trading cards. How did you come up with that ranking?

RH: Cards issued during or close to a player’s rookie season are always going to be the most desirable. Collectors like to chase that rookie card. When I look at the list, it’s a lot of rookie cards. The ’96 Chrome Refractor is iconic; we’ve graded it – I think it’s the seventh most-graded card that we’ve seen. The number one most-graded card is the ’89 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. The ’96 Kobe Finest Refractor is another one. These are Topps’ mainline product releases – they had the license along with Upper Deck, but those were the most popular cards at the time. Then you started to see Skybox and Fleer innovate, and that’s where you see the ’97 Metal Universe being number one. That’s just such an iconic set.

Given the limited numbers, like with the Refractor – if it’s the seventh most-graded card that we’ve seen, it’s not uncommon. It may be hard to get in good condition because they are condition-sensitive, but the PMGs, there are only 100 of them, and only 10 that are green. That’s literally a ghost card; collectors aren’t going to find it. And I think that’s why it’s so elusive and has that mystique. When you see one, you don’t even think you’re going to see one, and the prices are so high that most people know they’ll never own one in their collection.

But there are others that fit in there too, like the ’97 Metal Universe Championship PMG. That was another version of the Precious Metal Gems, just a different design. It didn’t have the green and the red, but those were also serial-numbered and very difficult to pull out of that product. Then there’s the Essential Credentials – Skybox was really pushing the envelope with a lot of these product designs. Essential Credentials have “Now” and “Future” versions in different color combinations, and they’re serial-numbered, so it’s a very finite amount. I can’t remember the exact print run on the “Future.” I think “Future” is the shorter one, and it’s mapped to the player number in the set, so it’s typically a really small print run of those cards. Again, because there might be less than 10 in existence, it’s just one of those ghost cards that don’t come up that often. I can’t even remember the last time there was a sale of one of the Essential Credentials Futures for Kobe Bryant.

Then there’s the Jambalaya, another interesting insert set from ’97 Skybox. The odds of pulling a Jambalaya were one in either 800 or 1,000 packs, so even back then, it was a really difficult pull. You’d be opening dozens and dozens of boxes before you even found one. In the set, Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan were the two marquee cards. I believe there’s a Tim Duncan in there too, and that was his rookie year, so the Tim Duncan card is also pretty desirable from that year. But the design – it’s oval, has a black back, and is super condition-sensitive. High-grade PSA 9s and 10s are very desirable.

That’s kind of what goes into the list. I’m looking at some of the other ones: the Skybox Premium Rubies, numbered out of 50, was another one. A lot of these cards coincided with the manufacturers getting really creative with product innovation, doing more serial numbering and limited print runs. The Topps Chrome Refractors aren’t serial-numbered – you typically got one or two per box, but it was the whole checklist, so there were refractors of every player. Kobe Bryant happened to be the most desirable. With all these other ones, they were really hard to pull, and there weren’t very many of them.

I think that started a trend we see today, where serial-numbered cards, all the way down to the one-of-ones, are the most desirable ones in the products.

Which athletes do you receive the most card submissions for? Like, is it the LeBrons, Kobes, and Jordans?

RH: You got three out of the four: Jordan, LeBron, and Kobe. But actually, Shohei Ohtani is No. 3, right ahead of Kobe. Victor Wembanyama is also a fast riser on the list. We just announced in July that we’ve graded almost a quarter-million Wembanyama cards in basically one year. That’s pretty insane. If you go back further in time, though, Shaquille O’Neal, Magic Johnson, and Anthony Davis are also on the list, but by far, Jordan is our No. 1 most-submitted athlete across all sports, with over a million cards. Then there’s LeBron, Kobe, they’re right there.

What advice would you give to somebody who wants to start collecting NBA cards?

RH: If I were someone new, I would first say, “Who am I a fan of? Who did I really enjoy watching play?” That should be at the forefront. If you didn’t like the player or weren’t a fan of the team, it’s kind of heresy to collect their cards. But find the player you’re a fan of, and if they’re one of the all-time greats – like Michael Jordan, LeBron James, or Kobe Bryant – those players will still have fans 50 years from now.

Then, I would focus on getting the nicest, most rare card you can afford of those players. Going back to our earlier conversation about serial-numbered and limited-edition cards, those are going to be more desirable. If you can get one from their rookie year or maybe their second year, those will be even more valuable. Michael Jordan’s cards weren’t serial-numbered when he entered the league, but one card of his that’s gaining popularity is the 1984 Star #101. Technically, it was his first issued card, though it wasn’t pack-issued. The way Star distributed these products was in team baggies, not in wax packs. That didn’t happen until the 1986 Fleer, which is the iconic card.

PSA actually didn’t grade Star cards for many years. We graded them in the early days, maybe from 1991 to 1993. But then questions arose about the authenticity of the cards and whether they were reprinted later. We couldn’t distinguish the original versions from the reprints, so we stopped grading them for 20 years. In the summer of 2022, we started grading them again because we gained more knowledge about the product and could distinguish between different versions. Since then, the popularity of the Michael Jordan 1984 Star #101 card has increased relative to the Fleer. We’ve only graded about 300 Star cards, versus thousands of the Fleer. From a scarcity standpoint, especially in high grades, like PSA 8 or 9, it’s rare. We haven’t even graded a 10 because the card is usually off-center. I think we’ve only graded 25 or 30 PSA 8s, and there are only three PSA 9s. It’s a very rare card to find in high grade.

Another card that’s become popular is Jordan’s ’90s cards, especially those with serial numbering, like the PMGs (Precious Metal Gems), which are highly desirable. Upper Deck made the first game-worn jersey cards in 1997, using Michael Jordan’s All-Star Game jersey from the 1992 season. There were two variations: a non-autograph version and an autographed version, hand-numbered to 23. That card is super iconic and very desirable, starting the trend of game-worn patches. This trend parallels a lot of Kobe Bryant cards that came onto the scene a year after his rookie season, leading to the trend of limited-edition patch cards and serial numbering.

The 1997 PMG was the biggest sale, fetching $2.7 million. But this year, a 2003 Upper Deck Ultimate Collection Logo Man one-of-one card sold at a Goldin auction for $2.9 million. That’s now the top sale.

RH: Yeah, the Jordan. There’s a LeBron James card from that set too, which sold years ago. I don’t know what the card is worth today, but I know who owns it. There was a profile on him – I can’t remember which publication did it – but he acquired that card for about $300,000 maybe six or seven years ago. It’s the LeBron Logo Man one-of-one, which I would say is more valuable than the Jordan and Kobe because it’s LeBron’s rookie card. I think we graded that one a PSA 9.

Well, right now, the biggest sale in NBA cards is the Steph Curry 2010-2011 Panini National Treasures rookie card with the Logo Man autograph, which sold for almost $6 million

RH: Wow, did that really sell for that much? I know that card.

That topped the LeBron Exquisite, which has consistently sold for millions. Luka Doncic’s card also sold for $3.1 million. It was sold twice; the guy bought it, then sold it again.

RH: Yeah, the Logo Man cards are very desirable, especially in newer products. Upper Deck really started it with the Ultimate Collection, and then Exquisite. Some of these rare cards are transacted privately, so their sales might not be reported, but they’re definitely out there.

What's your top NBA card – the holy grail, the best NBA card ever printed?

RH: Oh my gosh, if I think through it all… the ’90s inserts are really cool, but I didn’t grow up collecting during that era, so they don’t resonate with me as much. I’m going to gravitate toward the 1986 Fleer Jordan and the 1984 Star Jordan. Those are my picks because I think Michael Jordan is probably the greatest athlete of all time across any sport. His cards are the most iconic and desirable. I think people will still want to collect Jordan cards 100 years from now.

More recently, I’ve gotten into the Star card. Now that we know more about it and understand its scarcity, it’s cool and unique, especially since it came out two years before the 1986 Fleer. It feels like his first mainline licensed card. But vintage basketball is also underappreciated. If you look at some of the all-time greats, like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar‘s rookie card from 1969, that was a taller design. It’s super difficult to find in high condition. There’s also the 1961 Fleer set, which is iconic with Wilt Chamberlain and Oscar Robertson. The 1957 Topps set, with Bill Russell‘s rookie card, is another iconic set.

If you’re looking at the most iconic sets of all time, it’s 1957 Topps, which is super condition-sensitive with Hall of Famers. Then there’s the 1961 Fleer set. After that, you almost jump to the 1980-81 Topps set with the Bird-Magic trifold card. Personally, I enjoy that card because my dad and I bought two packs at a card show back in 1990 and pulled one of those cards. I still have it in my collection; it’s graded a PSA 7. It’s not high-end, but it’s special to me because I pulled it as a 12-year-old kid.

After that, you jump to the 1986 Fleer set, which is iconic with the first mainline cards of Charles Barkley, Dominique Wilkins, Hakeem Olajuwon, Jordan, Joe Dumars, Isiah Thomas, and Karl Malone. It was really the start of the modern NBA. Then it took another leap forward in the late ’90s, with Kobe Bryant’s rookie cards and the beginning of card innovation in 1997-98. That’s when you start seeing really cool, limited-edition designs and patch inserts. The next leap happened when Exquisite came out in 2003, and a lot of Panini’s thicker cards, like Flawless and National Treasures, took inspiration from Exquisite.

Modern collectors gravitate toward not only the rarity of the card and the design but also the autograph and the patch. Now you have three elements at play that inform the desirability of a particular card.

You recently took notice about people submitting fake '86 Jordan cards

RH: Yeah, I think a little over 20 percent of the ones we saw last year were fakes. Isn’t that crazy? Then there are fake autographs, fake cards… Some of those serial-numbered cards from the late ’90s—I’ve seen counterfeits of those, where people try to recreate them. One of the other common problems is what’s called backdoor copies of cards. Maybe the manufacturer had some sheets they planned to destroy, and they weren’t meant to be issued, but an employee took those out. This happened in the ’90s too, when uncut sheets went out because Fleer, which owned SkyBox, went through a bankruptcy before Upper Deck acquired the company and all the IP. A lot of things went out into the industry, and it’s difficult to tell what’s real pack-issued versus not. A lot of it comes down to the serial numbering on the cards, or in some cases, the serial numbers are missing. That’s a surefire way to tell it wasn’t pack-issued. It doesn’t mean the card is fake; it just wasn’t issued the way it was designed, like to go inside the pack.

So, we’re having to stay vigilant. I think that’s where services like PSA give collectors more trust in what they’re buying. They know it’s the real deal, and then we’ll apply our numeric grade as well. Sometimes, when you see the numeric grade, it adds additional scarcity and value to the item, as we were talking about. A lot of these cards are very condition-sensitive.

Grant Williams pulled a Luka Doncic at the Fanatics Festival in New York.

RH: Yeah he pulled a Luka card, worth like $100,000. Yeah, he graded it with us at the show.

Oh yeah? What did he get?

RH: A nine.

Do you know any NBA players who have a passion for the hobby?

RH: Yeah, I think Grant Williams is a good example. He’s a player that collects. I know a few others, but I’m not sure if I should talk about them because sometimes they like to be a little more anonymous. But across other sports, we do have athletes passionate about collecting. Major League Baseball is probably our top one. A lot of those athletes have paid visits to us here at our headquarters in California and have been pretty vocal on social media about their collecting. Mike Trout is one of them. Bobby Witt Jr. is another athlete who collects, and we actually work with him from a marketing standpoint. Corbin Carroll, who was Rookie of the Year last year for the Arizona Diamondbacks, is another collector. So yeah, you see it, and there are actually some European soccer players in the English Premier League who collect. So, there are players who collect, and I think it’s fun. It’s cool. I love seeing younger kids get into it. I started collecting when I was eight, and it’s a fun community. You learn business lessons, get more connected to the sports, and become a bigger fan. I think it’s great.