New York Mets at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

The New York Mets (67-62) and San Diego Padres (73-57) play the 3rd game of their 4-game series Saturday. First pitch from PETCO Park is at 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 4-1.

The Mets had their 2-game winning streak snapped Friday when they were shut out 7-0 by the Padres. They are 5-3 in their last 8 games.

The Padres snapped their 2-game losing streak with the 7-0 win and beat the Mets for the first time this season. While they are 4-4 in their last 8 games, the Padres are 14-5 in their last 19 games.

Mets at Padres projected starters

LHP David Peterson vs. RHP Michael King

Peterson (7-1, 3.00 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 78 innings.

• Last start: No decision, 7 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 6 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 4-3 home win over Baltimore Orioles Monday
• 2-0 with 1.85 ERA in 4 August starts
• 0-2 with 4.50 ERA in 3 career games (2 starts) vs. Padres

King (11-6, 3.18 ERA) makes his 25th start and 26th appearance. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 141 1/3 innings.

• Lats start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 5-3 home win over Minnesota Twins Monday
• 6-1 with 2.08 ERA over last 8 starts
• 0-0 with 2.25 ERA in 5 career games (1 start) vs. Mets

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Mets at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mets +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Padres -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-175) | Padres -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Mets at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Mets 2

The Padres have won King’s last 6 starts. The Mets have won Peterson’s last 3.

The Mets have not been great against teams with winning records, going 32-39 this season, while the Padres are 38-37 against such teams.

The Padres have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last 20 games.

King has been very good over the last 2 months.

Expect the Padres to win, but the run line is where the better bet is.

PASS.

The Padres are 68-62 ATS over this season while the Mets are 62-67 ATS.

The Padres, though, are only 28-38 ATS at home. However, their last 6 wins have been by 2 or more runs and 15 of their last 21 have been by multiple runs.

Seven of the Mets’ last 9 losses have been by 2 or more runs.

BET PADRES -1.5 (+145).

Three of their 5 meetings this season have had 7 or fewer total runs.

Five of the Mets’ last 7 games have not reached 8 total runs.

BET UNDER 7.5 (-115).

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