San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

The San Diego Padres (74-58) and St. Louis Cardinals (65-65) open up a 4-game series Monday at Busch Stadium at 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cardinals lead 2-1

The Padres took 2 of 3 over the weekend against the New York Mets. They took Sunday’s game 3-2 as they entered the 8th inning down 2-0. OF Jackson Merrill hit a walk-off homer against RHP Edwin Diaz to send the home crowd in a frenzy. Merrill is hitting .304 with 7 homers and 22 RBIs over the last 30 days. He has now become the favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year (-165 at BetMGM Sportsbook).

The Cards stole one Sunday as an error allowed runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out in the top of the 9th. On cue, the next batter struck out before OF Lars Nootbaar drove in both runs with a base hit. They’ve won 4 of 5, against playoff teams no less, yet still remain 5 games out of a Wild Card spot.

Padres at Cardinals projected starters

RHP Randy Vasquez vs. RHP Kyle Gibson

Vasquez (3-6, 4.63 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 in 81 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 7-6 victory Aug. 8 at Pittsburgh Pirates
• Hasn’t faced Cardinals
• Home/road splits: 2-3, 6.08 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 5.4 K/9 in 9 road starts; 1-3, 3.24 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 8 home starts

Gibson (7-5, 4.22 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 136 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 10-6 home victory in 10 innings Wednesday against Milwaukee Brewers
• Last 5 starts against Padres: 2-1, 4.76 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 19 K in 28 1/3 IP

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Padres at Cardinals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Padres +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Cardinals -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+155) | Cardinals +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Padres at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 5, Padres 4

Gibson beat the Padres early in the season, allowing 2 ER on 4 H and 2 BB while fanning 4 in 7 IP. His biggest task will be to keep the Padres in the ballpark. He has allowed 1 homer in his last 5 home starts, spanning 24 1/3 IP.

Vasquez doesn’t have the kind of stuff that should elude Cardinals bats. His 4-seamer averages 94 mph, and opposing hitters are hitting .338 off of it. The CARDINALS -120 sneak one out.

The Padres are the hardest team to strike out in baseball, but I LOVE KYLE GIBSON OVER 3.5 K’S (-140). He has 5+ K’s in 4 straight starts and fanned 4 Padres in his previous start.

It is HOT in St. Louis. It’s expected to be 97 degrees at first pitch with a 7-mph win blowing out toward left-center. Having said that, I don’t trust this Cardinals offense enough to go for an Over at -120, though the pitching matchup leans that way.

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