New York Yankees at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

The New York Yankees (78-55) and Washington Nationals (60-73) conclude a 3-game series Wednesday in D.C. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET (Prime Video). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

New York took the series opener 5-2 and lost the 2nd game 4-2. The Yankees are 5-2 over their last 7 games.

The Nationals are just 31-34 at home, but they are 5-3 over their last 8 games in D.C.

Yankees at Nationals projected starters

LHP Carlos Rodon vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore

Rodon (14-8, 4.16 ERA) is making his 27th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 140 2/3 IP.

• Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 7-0 win vs. Colorado Rockies Friday
• Career vs. Nationals: 0-0, 1.50 ERA (6 IP, 1 ER), 6 H, 0 BB, 1 K

Gore (7-11, 4.51 ERA) is making his 27th start. He’s logged a 1.56 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 131 2/3 IP.

• Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 7-0 win at Atlanta Braves Friday
• Career vs. Yankees: 0-1, 4.50 ERA (4 IP, 2 ER), 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 1 start

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Yankees at Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:26 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Yankees -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Nationals +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (-130) | Nationals +1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Yankees at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Nationals 6, Yankees 5

The Nats have won 3 straight series finales. Peg Gore as being underrated overall: he’s been undone by a .367 batting average on balls in play. And he’s facing a Yankee offense that has much better numbers against right-handers (.798 OPS) than against port-siders (.723 OPS).

Rodon’s recent starts don’t add up. A lower quality of contact is not reflected in a 2.67 ERA since July 22. The Yankee southpaw has registered a 5.07 ERA, 1.40 WHIP on the road this season (4.84 road ERA since 2022).

There is value on the home team for this contest. Consider a partial-unit play on the NATIONALS (+165); a +170 would make for full-fledged action.

Respecting New York’s ability to bang out a 5-run win here. Plus, neither side plays a lot of 1-run games. The value is getting the big plus return on the Nats.

STEER CLEAR.

Looking at runs scored vs. expected, there is some Over lean to everything the Yankees do. They have somewhat underplayed their offensive talents and overplayed what they have on the mound and defensively. Add in some recent-bias fade to Rodon and a 97-degree day in D.C., and the OVER 9 (-105) gets the nod here.

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