Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and predictions
By Corey Scott,
2024-08-28
The Miami Marlins (48-84) and Colorado Rockies (49-84) play the 3rd game of a 4-game set at Coors Field Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Rockiesodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Marlins lead 4-1
After losing the Monday opener 3-2 as +104 underdogs, the Marlins bounced back with a 9-8 win as +132 underdogs Tuesday with the Over (11.5) easily cashing. Miami scored 5 runs in the 9th after entering the inning with a 1.1% win probabilty, according to ESPN Analytics, trailing 8-4.
The Rockies led by as many as 6 runs in the 2nd inning. It was the 2nd time this season that Colorado has blown a lead of 5 or more runs to the Marlins — the other was a 7-6 Miami home win in 10 innings April 30.
The Marlins and Rockies own the worst and 2nd-worst records, respectively, in the NL.
Marlins at Rockies projected starters
RHP Max Meyer vs. LHP Kyle Freeland
Meyer (3-3, 5.44 ERA) makes his 10th start. The rookie has a 1.36 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 46 1/3 IP.
Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 6-3 home victory vs. Chicago Cubs Friday
2024 road stats: 1-2, 5.68 ERA (19 IP, 12 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 in 4 starts
Has never faced Rockies
Freeland (3-6, 5.70 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 79 IP.
Last start: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 5 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 3-0 defeat at New York Yankees Friday
2024 home stats: 1-1, 3.86 ERA (37 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 7 starts
Career vs. Marlins: 2-0, 3.60 ERA (25 IP, 10 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 6 appearances (4 starts), including 0-0 with 3.60 ERA (5 IP, 2 ER) in 1 start last year
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Moneyline (ML): Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Rockies -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-190) | Rockies -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 11 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Marlins at Rockies picks and predictions
Prediction
Rockies 5, Marlins 4
Colorado (-130) will probably win with Freeland taking the mound. However, I wouldn’t want to pay more than -120 on the Rockies. Freeland has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 4 of his last 5 starts overall and 2 ER in each of his last 2 outings against Miami.
PASS on the ML. Bet KYLE FREELAND UNDER 3.5 EARNED RUNS (-140).
Miami +1.5 (-190) will likely cover the run line, but it’s hard to stay profitable long term betting into lines with this much vig.
PASS. Bet Freeland’s ER prop and/or the total instead.
While Freeland’s ER prop is somewhat of a derivative of the full-game total, the Under is still a good bet at this number. Freeland has allowed a total of just 4 runs in 18 2/3 IP over his last 3 starts, and the Rockies have scored 3 or fewer in 8 of their last 10 games.
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