Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

The Atlanta Braves (73-60) and Philadelphia Phillies (78-55) begin a 4-game series Thursday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 6-3

The Braves are coming off a 5-1 win as -136 favorites at the Minnesota Twins Wednesday with the Under (7.5) hitting. LHP Chris Sale earned his 15th victory (6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 K), which ties him for the MLB lead in wins. The Braves got a solo home run from RF Jorge Soler and RBIs from 1B Matt Olson and LF Ramon Laureano. Atlanta has won 6 of its last 7 games.

Philadelphia had its 4-game winning streak snapped in a 10-0 loss as a +106 underdog to the visiting Houston Astros Wednesday as the total (10) pushed. RHP Taijuan Walker was rocked for 6 ER on 13 hits over 6 innings. The offense could only manage 3 hits on the day. Despite the loss, the Phillies are 44-24 at home this season.

Braves at Phillies projected starters

RHP Charlie Morton vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez

Morton (7-7, 4.24 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 131 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-2 home victory against Washington Nationals Saturday
• 2024 away splits: 3-3, 4.62 ERA (60 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 11 starts
• 2023 vs Phillies: 0-1, 4.81 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.89 WHIP, 14.5 K/9 in 2 starts; hasn’t faced Philadelphia this year

Sanchez (9-9, 3.51 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 146 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 3-2 setback at Braves Aug. 22
• 2024 home splits: 7-3, 2.18 ERA (86 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 13 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Braves at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:35 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Braves +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Braves +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+135)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Braves 3

PASS.

I am going to completely stay away from the moneyline and run line because I don’t consider either of those bets to be safe. I’d rather save my money for the sure thing, which in my mind is the total.

PASS.

I’m not confident enough to take the Phillies to cover the run line, and I don’t want to buy all that juice getting the 1.5 with the Braves. I’ll look to the sure thing, the total.

BET UNDER 8.5 (-115).

I absolutely love this bet Thursday. The last 5 head-to-head matchups between these teams have gone under this total — comfortably. They’ve played a lot of low-scoring, tight games.

The Braves are 8-2 to the Under in their last 10 games. The Under went 2-0-1 in the Phillies’ series against the Astros Monday through Wednesday.

Morton’s last 3 starts have gone under the total. The Under has hit in 3 of Sanchez’s last 4 starts.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips

SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @DrewPhelps05 on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Fantasy baseball help from BaseballHQ.com:

Subscribe now to dominate the competition.