5 fantasy football picks to avoid in your draft

Ahead of the final draft weekend, it’s time to look at five players we don’t want on our fantasy rosters for 2024. As ever, all players have value. Those listed here are ones we see falling well short of delivering the production versus where you’d need to draft them in most instances.

QB Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

A year ago, Richardson was something of a curiosity. His measurables and athleticism were off the charts, but there were concerns about his accuracy and decision making. That put him around QB15 in fantasy rankings. Now, heading into Year 2, he’s QB6 in ADP. So, what exactly changed? As a rookie, Richardson started four games and was injured in three of them, ultimately missing most of his debut campaign after needing shoulder surgery.

He didn’t bank a lot of reps, and he hasn’t looked particularly sharp in the preseason — his last outing against a Cincinnati Bengals squad sitting their starters saw him throw a Pick-6 and once again deal with accuracy and decision-making issues. Yes, Richardson is a physical marvel, and his running ability could make him a viable fantasy starter, but again, how is this scenario any different than last year when he was QB16 in ADP? For us, Richardson carries all the same concerns he had in 2023, and now you must add durability issues on top of it.

RB Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings & Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders

We’re cheating a bit here and including two names. We’ll start with Jones, who signed with Minnesota during the offseason after seven years with the Green Bay Packers. His strong close to 2023 — he topped 100 yards in five straight games — helped the Packers almost reach the NFC Championship Game, but they followed an injury-filled, ineffective first 15 weeks. He turns 30 this December, has struggled to stay healthy despite operating in a timeshare backfield, and is departing an ascending offense to one in transition with quarterback Sam Darnold at the helm.

A seldom-used reserve for most of his first two seasons, White earned his chance last December when now-Packers RB Josh Jacobs injured his knee. Thrust into the lead role, White ran 84 times for 397 yards and a score over the final four games. His 2024 outlook is based largely on that minute sample size when he was fresh running against tired opponents. That’s dangerous. Add to that a shaky offense and a backup in RB Alexander Mattison, who’s familiar with the new blocking scheme, and it’s not hard to envision White underperforming expectations. Both backs carry significant risk for modest upside.

WR Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears

After spending his first 11 seasons with the Los Angeles Chargers, Allen was traded to the Bears during the offseason to help shepherd another young quarterback. In four years with QB Justin Herbert, Allen averaged 95 receptions, 1,031 yards, and 6.3 TDs — despite missing 14 games during that stretch. Initially, this seemed like reachable production for the veteran, but things changed when Chicago used the ninth overall pick to select WR Rome Odunze. Pair that with the massive contract extension they handed to WR DJ Moore, and it’d be shocking if Allen wasn’t one-and-done in the Windy City.

Contract uncertainty alone is no reason to kill Allen’s fantasy value, but with Moore, Odunze, TE Cole Kmet and rookie QB Caleb Williams all huge parts of Chicago’s future it makes sense those would be the relationships they’d prioritize developing. Beyond that, Allen is entering his age-32 season and will be playing his home games outside of California for the first time (he went to college at Cal). Allen’s physique and lack of quickness have also been pointed out during training camp, though it’s hard to judge a 12-year pro by how he looks in August. Still, add it all up and you wonder how high his ceiling really is.

WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles

In 2022, it looked like Smith and fellow wideout A.J. Brown were set to form a 1a/1b tandem for the Eagles. Instead, Brown as emerged as the clear WR1 while Smith has settled into the No. 2 role. That’s not an inherently bad spot, but Philly is built around their running game and QB Jalen Hurts’ dual-threat ability more than their passing attack — to that end, Hurts ranked 20th in passing attempts per game among the 31 QBs to throw at least 250 times last year.

With fewer opportunities, target share becomes more important. Last year, Brown was targeted 9.3 times per game compared to 7.0 for Smith. TE Dallas Goedert was next at 5.9. Additional moves could mean an even smaller role for Smith in 2024, most notably the signing of RB Saquon Barkley, who is an excellent pass catcher out of the backfield, and WR Jahan Dotson, a former first-round pick acquired to shore up the No. 3 receiver spot. Smith is currently being selected as WR23. That feels too high.

TE David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

Fantasy owners waited years for Njoku to have a breakout season. It finally came last year when he set career highs in targets (123), receptions (81), yards (882), and touchdowns (6). Unfortunately, he wasn’t all that effective when QB Deshaun Watson was under center. In fact, in the five games Watson played significant snaps, Njoku posted 20 catches for 176 yards and one score — projected over a full season, that’s a 68-599-3 line.

It’s certainly possible that with more reps together, the chemistry between Watson and Njoku will grow, but don’t forget that Cleveland swung a deal for WR Jerry Jeudy this offseason, giving them a top-three receiver corps of Jeudy, Amari Cooper, and Elijah Moore. Plus, while it isn’t exactly apples to apples, in his three years as the Houston Texans full-time quarterback, Watson never had a tight end log more than 418 yards. Given all of that, statistical regression seems like a real possibility for Njoku.