San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

The San Diego Padres (76-60) and Tampa Bay Rays (66-67) open a 3-game set at Tropicana Field Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50 p.m. ET (Apple TV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Padres won 2-1 last year

The Padres split a 4-game set at the St. Louis Cardinals. They wrapped up the series with a 4-1 loss as +101 underdogs Thursday with the Under (7.5) hitting. San Diego is in the 2nd NL Wild Card spot, 2 games ahead of the Atlanta Braves.

The Rays are coming off a 2-1 series loss at the Seattle Mariners. They lost 6-2 in the Wednesday finale as the Over (6.5) cashed. Tampa Bay is 6 games back of the Minnesota Twins for the final AL Wild Card and has just a 1.8% chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.com.

Padres at Rays projected starters

LHP Martín Pérez vs. RHP Taj Bradley

Pérez (3-5, 4.60 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 109 2/3 IP with the Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates.

• Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 3-2 home victory over New York Mets Sunday
• Pulled early against Mets Sunday after walking 3 straight batters to load bases in 4th inning
• 2024 road stats: 1-3, 5.82 ERA (43 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.62 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 in 8 starts with Padres and Pirates
• Career vs. Rays: 4-7, 5.98 ERA (87 1/3 IP, 58 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 19 appearances (16 starts), including 0-1 with 18.90 ERA (3 1/3 IP, 7 ER) in 1 start last year

Bradley (6-8, 3.77 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 107 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 ER (6 R), 7 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 9-8 victory in 10 innings at Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday
• 2024 home stats: 3-5, 2.83 ERA (57 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 12.6 K/9 in 10 starts
• Has never faced Padres

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Padres at Rays odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:13 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Rays -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+170) | Rays +1.5 (-225)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Padres at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Rays 4

The PADRES (+105) have the 2nd-best record as away underdogs this season at 22-14 straight up. Pérez is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 8 ER) in 5 starts since being acquired by San Diego, and the Padres have gone 5-0 in his outings.

The Rays have less than a 2% chance to make the playoffs and are 1-4 in Bradley’s last 5 starts. In his last start — Saturday at the Dodgers — they had just a 7.8% win probability, according to ESPN Analyics, in the bottom of the 7th inning and were somewhat lucky to even escape with that victory.

Bradley is 0-3 with an 8.14 ERA (21 IP, 19 ER) in 4 August starts and shouldn’t be trusted as the Rays start planning their offseason vacations.

BET PADRES (+105).

Just 3 of the Padres’ last 9 games have resulted in multi-run wins for San Diego. Tampa Bay +1.5 (-225) likely covers, but this line has way too much vig to consider playing.

PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.

At such a low number, my lean is to the Over with Bradley coming off 5 consecutive starts allowing 3 or more runs. However, with the new-and-improved Pérez taking the mound for San Diego, I have no interesting in betting this Over unless it drops to a flat 7.

LEAN OVER 7.5 (-115).

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