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Illinois State at Iowa odds, picks and predictions
By Kevin Erickson,
1 day ago
The Illinois State Redbirds and Iowa Hawkeyes open their 2024 NCAA football seasons Saturday at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET (Big Ten Network). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Illinois State vs. Iowaodds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Illinois State enters the 2024 campaign ranked No. 19 in the STATS Division I Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) football rankings and No. 20 in the AFCA FCS Coaches Poll. The Redbirds went 6-5 straight up (SU) last season while going 4-4 in the ultra-competitive Missouri Valley Conference.
Iowa will once again have a nasty defense, as it has 8 returning starters from a unit which allowed just 282.5 total yards per game, 170.7 passing yards per game and 14.8 points per game.
For the Hawkeyes to be successful, though, they need to be a functional offense. Ex-Western Michigan coach Tim Lester is entrusted as turning things around as the new offensive coordinator. Iowa managed 15.4 PPG in 2023, so things can’t get much worse. QB Cade McNamara is back healthy and ready to lead the offense.
These teams last met Sept. 5, 2015, with the Hawkeyes coming away with a 31-14 victory in Iowa City, covering as 10.5-point favorites as the Under (59.5) easily connected.
Iowa is No. 25 in the US LBM Coaches Poll— conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports.
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Moneyline (ML): Illinois State +1400 (bet $100 to win $1,400) | Iowa -4000 (bet $4,000 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Illinois State +22.5 (-110) | Iowa -22.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 40.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Illinois State at Iowa picks and predictions
Prediction
Iowa 26, Illinois State 13
Iowa (-4000) can’t be trusted until we get a little more information. Yes, that defense is amazing, and it will win the Hawkeyes games on its own. But Illinois State (+1400) is no slouch, and we need to see that the Iowa offense is improved to deem this a potential slam-dunk victory.
Plus, you wouldn’t want to play a favorite this large anyway. Risking 40 times your potential return is amateur hour in betting circles, even as part of a giant multi-leg parlay. There is just no value, and too much risk.
AVOID.
Play ILLINOIS STATE +22.5 (-110) is a good FCS team, and one which will contend for a playoff spot in the subdivision. The Redbirds will rely heavily upon the legs of RB Mason King, and former Kansas State QB Jake Rubley transfers in to give I-State a bump. Rubley should have immediate chemistry out of the gates with WR Xavier Loyd, also a portal add from K-State.
Iowa -22.5 (-110) went 1-1-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite in 2023, and it managed to score 22 or fewer points in 11 of the final 13 games last season, so covering a spread of this magnitude is a bit of a tall order without vast improvement on the offensive side of the ball.
The UNDER 40.5 (-110) and Iowa was a recipe for a lot of bread last season. In 14 games, the Under cashed 12 times.
The Hawkeyes defense will be stout again, especially at Kinnick. Iowa allowed just 79 points in 7 home games in 2023, or 11.3 PPG.
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