Penn State at West Virginia odds, picks and predictions

The No. 9 Penn State Nittany Lions start their season by paying a visit to the West Virginia Mountaineers Saturday. Kickoff from Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown is set for noon ET (FOX). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Penn State vs. West Virginia odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

The Nittany Lions look to build upon a solid season last year, finishing 10-2 in the regular season (7-2 in Big Ten play) before losing to the Ole Miss Rebels 38-25 in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl. Penn State will have a lot of new faces this year as it lost 8 players to the 2024 NFL Draft.

West Virginia is hoping that a full season with QB Garrett Greene under center can lead to success after seeing flashes en route to an 8-4 regular season finish in 2023 that ended with a 30-10 win over the North Carolina Tar Heels in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.

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Penn State at West Virginia odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:34 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Penn State -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | West Virginia +240 (bet $100 to win $240)
• Against the spread (ATS): Penn State -7.5 (-110) | West Virginia +7.5 (-110)
• Over/Under (O/U): 50.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Penn State at West Virginia picks and predictions

Prediction

Penn State 34, West Virginia 21

PASS.

Penn State (-300) should continue its dominance vs. West Virginia (the Nittany Lions lead the all-time series 49-9-2), but this line is set too heavily in Penn State’s favor to risk betting on. Bet on the spread and/or total instead.

BET PENN STATE -7.5 (-110).

The Nittany Lions have not allowed the Mountaineers to finish within 8 points of them in any of the last 5 meetings.

Both team’s offenses should see some success, but with Penn State’s ability to chew clock by running the ball and to get stops thanks to its elite defense, Penn State will be able to pull away and cover the spread here.

This is a risky bet as the talent level for Penn State does come slightly into question because of how many players the Nittany Lions lost in the draft.

LEAN OVER 50.5 (-110).

This Over number has been hit in each of the last 3 PSU-WVU matchups.

West Virginia also finished last season with the Over going 3-1 over its last 4 games, a trend I expect to continue seeing as the Mountaineers begin their 2024 campaign.

This is a lean because Penn State is a team that has become known for its “Big Ten style” of play lately — running the ball and defense — and that style always makes betting on an Over number this high risky.

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