Western Kentucky at Alabama odds, picks and predictions

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Alabama Crimson Tide open their seasons at Bryant-Denny Stadium Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Western Kentucky vs. Alabama odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

Western Kentucky finished 8-5 (5-3 Conference USA) last year, wrapping up the season with a cover as a 4.5-point underdog in a 38-35 OT win over Old Dominion in the Famous Toastery Bowl with the Over (49.5) hitting.

The Hilltoppers have brought in Texas State transfer QB TJ Finley (24 TDs, 8 INTs in 2023) to lead an offense that was 16th in the nation (1st in C-USA) with 292.7 passing yards per game last season.

The Crimson Tide went 12-2 (8-0 SEC) in 2023 and made the College Football Playoff ahead of Florida State in what many viewed as a controversial decision. Alabama lost 27-20 in OT as a 2-point underdog to Michigan — the eventual national champion — in the Rose Bowl as the Over (46) barely cashed.

Alabama, which is No. 5 in the US LBM Coaches Poll, signed former Washington coach Kalen DeBoer in January to take over the team following Nick Saban’s retirement.

– US LBM Coaches Poll: Conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

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Western Kentucky at Alabama odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4:08 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Off the board
• Against the spread (ATS): Western Kentucky +31.5 (-110) | Alabama -31.5 (-110)
• Over/Under (O/U): 59.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Western Kentucky at Alabama picks and predictions

Prediction

Alabama 48, Western Kentucky 14

The ML is off the board at BetMGM. The best price in the market is Alabama -10000 (bet $10,000 to win $100), and that’s obviously not a bet I would recommend.

PASS. Bet the spread and/or total instead.

While DeBoer’s success at Washington — going 14-1 straight up and making it to the National Championship game — can’t be directly translated into guaranteed covers for Alabama, it shows that there won’t be much of a coaching drop-off, if any, after Saban’s retirement.

The Crimson Tide were just 2-point underdogs to the eventual national champs in the Rose Bowl, and while they didn’t cover, it showed that the best available information in the market had Alabama less than a field goal worse than the best team in the country.

QB Jalen Milroe was mediocre in the Rose Bowl, finishing 16-of-23 passing for 116 yards with no TDs. However, in his 4th season, he should take another step forward after a breakout year in 2023 with 23 TDs and 6 INTs. Milroe is tied with Texas QB Quinn Ewers for the 3rd-shortest odds to win the Heisman Trophy this year (+1000 at BetMGM Sportsbook).

Let’s not overreact to a coaching change or an OT loss to last year’s national champs.

BET ALABAMA -31.5 (-110).

The Over went 8-1-1 in Alabama’s final 10 games last season. When the Crimson Tide were favored by double digits last year, the Over went 5-1-1, with Alabama averaging 39.9 points per game.

BET OVER 59.5 (-115).

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