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New Mexico at Arizona odds, picks and predictions
By Kevin Erickson,
2 hours ago
The New Mexico Lobos (0-1) and Arizona Wildcats (0-0) meet Saturday at Arizona Stadium in Tucson. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the New Mexico vs. Arizonaodds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Lobos faced FCS power Montana State in Week 0 Aug. 24, and it led 31-14 heading into the 4th quarter. New Mexico held a 31-21 lead with 4½ minutes to go, but the Bobcats struck for 2 late scores to steal the game in the ABQ.
UNM was gouged for 362 rushing yards and 567 total yards while producing just 324 total yards of offense. The Lobos had 2 TDs thanks to scoop-and-scores, including the opening score of the game just 4:23 in. MSU RB Adam Jones had a 93-yard TD run with 4:35 to close the gap to 31-28, while RB Scottre Humphrey scored on a 4-yard TD run with just 10 seconds left to spoil Bronco Mendenhall’s coaching debut.
It’s a historic game for Arizona, as it marks its 1st football game as a member of the Big 12 Conference, although, of course, this isn’t a league game. It’s also the 1st game under coach Brent Brennan, as Jedd Fisch bolted for the Washington job.
The Wildcats have a strong offensive core in place with QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan. Arizona added 2 tremendous tailbacks via the portal, grabbing Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Quali Conley IV.
Croskey-Merritt will actually be facing his former team after putting up 1,190 rushing yards, 6.3 yards per gain and 17 TDs last season in Albuquerque, the senior’s lone season with UNM after 3 years at Alabama State of the FCS.
For Arizona, its defense is slightly concerning with just 5 starters back, and the defensive line will be a work in progress from the jump.
Arizona is No. 21 in the US LBM Coaches Poll— conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports.
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Moneyline (ML): New Mexico +2500 (bet $100 to win $2,500) | Arizona -10000 (bet $10,000 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): New Mexico +30.5 (-110) | Arizona -30.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 58.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
New Mexico at Arizona picks and predictions
Prediction
Arizona 51, New Mexico 13
Arizona (-10000) will cost you 100 times your potential return. In other words, that’s $100 risked for every $1 won. Does it even need to be said how bad of an idea that is?
PASS.
Play ARIZONA -30.5 (-110) laying the points.
While New Mexico +30.5 (-110) was able to post 31 points at home last week, it looks more impressive than it is. First, while Montana State is a top-tier FCS team, it’s still in the subdivision. And UNM lost to it. In fact, New Mexico’s defense was hot garbage, and the only reason the Lobos had half of their touchdowns was due to a pair of opportunistic fumble returns.
UNM will struggle to move the ball against Arizona, even if the Wildcats are retooling the defensive line and have some issues up front to sort out. And the Wildcats could literally go wild against this Lobos defense.
The OVER 58.5 (-110) is a solid play here.
Arizona could do most of the heavy lifting to get this total across the finish line. Fifita and McMillan are a lethal pass-catch combo, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them hook up for multiple scores. And, don’t forget that there is the Croskey-Merritt revenge factor as he kicks it into a higher gear against his former team.
Look for Arizona to get into the 50s. We might not even need UNM to get into double digits to get this one over.
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