Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

The Atlanta Braves (74-61) and Philadelphia Phillies (79-56) play the 3rd game of their 4-game series on Saturday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is at 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 7-4.

The Braves, who trail the NL East-leading Phillies by 5 games and hold the final Wild Card spot in the league, have won 10 of their last 13 games. They lost the series opener Thursday but bounced back with a 7-2 win Friday.

The Phillies have lost 2 of their last 3 games but are 5-2 in their last 7 games.

Braves at Phillies projected starters

LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Fried (8-7, 3.50 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 133 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 5 IP, 3 R (1 ER), 4 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 10-6 road win over Minnesota Twins Monday
• 0-1 with 6.59 ERA in 3 starts vs. Phillies this season
• 4-5 with 4.05 career ERA in 22 games (16 starts) vs. Phillies

Wheeler (12-6, 2.74 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 160 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 3-2 hone win over Houston Astros Monday
• 2-1 with 1.97 ERA in 5 August starts
• 0-1 with 1.50 ERA in 2 starts vs. Braves this season
• 12-8 with 3.07 ERA in 29 career starts vs. Braves

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Braves at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Braves +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-175) | Phillies -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Braves 2

Wheeler has been consistently great in August. He has not allowed more than 2 runs in any start this month. He has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 10 of his last 11 starts.

Fried has not been as consistent this month and has struggled against Philly this season. The Braces have lost 5 of his last 7 starts.

For the Phillies, it comes down to great pitching. They have allowed 3 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 8 wins.

With Wheeler on the mound, they look good for it, but -160 odds aren’t good enough to bet.

PASS.

The Phillies have not covered the spread in their last 3 games. Fourteen of their last 19 wins have been by more than 1 run.

The Braves are red-hot right now, but Wheeler is a streak-buster.

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+145).

Four of Fried’s last 6 starts have had 7 or fewer total runs.

Four of Wheeler’s last 5 starts have had 7 or fewer runs.

Five of their 11 games this season have stayed Under 8 runs.

BET UNDER 7.5 (+100).

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