Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and predictions

The San Francisco Giants (68-69) welcome the Miami Marlins (50-86) to Oracle Park Sunday for the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Giants odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Giants lead 3-2

The Marlins beat the Giants 4-3 Saturday yet lost the series-opening battle 3-1 Friday. Miami has traded off winning and losing over its last 8 games. It sits 5th in the NL East and is 25-42 on the road this season. Miami lost 2 of 3 games at home to San Francisco earlier in the season (April 15-17). It is 63-73 against the spread (ATS).

The Giants still have postseason aspirations despite sitting 4th in the NL West. San Francisco has lost 3 of its last 4 games and 6 of its last 9. The Giants are 65-72 ATS on the season. They have performed much better at home, having a 39-29 record at Oracle Park. San Francisco has won 4 of its last 6 at home.

Marlins at Giants projected starters

RHP Darren McCaughan vs. RHP Logan Webb

McCaughan (0-0, 8.62 ERA) makes his 1st start and 6th appearance. The rookie has a 2.11 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 4.6 K/9 through 15 2/3 innings.

• 2024 away stats: 0-0, 12.46 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 2.42 WHIP, 3.1 K/9 in 2 appearances
• Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 11-8 home victory July 26, 2021, with Seattle Mariners
• Has never faced Giants

Webb (11-8, 3.24 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 177 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 5-4 road win over Milwaukee Brewers Tuesday
• 2024 home stats: 7-3, 2.26 ERA (91 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 in 13 starts
• Career vs. Marlins: 1-1, 2.67 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 5 starts

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Marlins at Giants odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:33 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Marlins +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Giants -255 (bet $255 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Marlins +1.5 (-114) | Giants -1.5 (-105)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +102 | U: -124)

Marlins at Giants picks and predictions

Prediction

Giants 5, Marlins 2

PASS.

San Francisco (-255) is just far too expensive to take here at more than double your money for a unit of return. The Marlins aren’t worth a play either, as they’ve struggled on the road this season.

BET GIANTS -1.5 (-105).

The Giants have a significant pitching advantage Sunday with Webb on the mound. San Francisco has covered the spread in 4 of Webb’s last 5 starts and is 35-33 ATS following a loss.

Given Miami’s recent trend of losing following a win, it is primed to come up short in this one. The Marlins are 22-27 ATS following a win, a cover rate in the lower half of the league (20th).

Considering those trends and the pitching discrepancy, take GIANTS -1.5 (-105).

BET UNDER 7.5 (-124).

The Giants are 2-4 O/U in Webb’s last 6 starts. The NL leader in IP has allowed a total of just 8 runs over his last 6 starts and 1 or fewer in 4 of his last 6. San Francisco has gone Under in 3 straight and is 4-7-3 O/U in its last 14.

The Marlins have gone Under in 3 of their last 4 games as well, scoring 3 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 9. Couple it all together, and back UNDER 7.5 (-124).

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