UFC Fight Night 242: Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson odds, picks and predictions

In a 3-round men’s featherweight bout on the main card, Steve Garcia and Kyle Nelson meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 242 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 100 and UFC Vegas 97 — at UFC Apex. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 242: Garcia vs. Nelson odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+ with the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Records: Garcia (16-5-0) | Nelson (16-5-1)

Garcia is a southpaw who enters this bout with a 4-inch reach advantage. The 32-year-old also has a 5.00-to-3.65 significant strikes landed per minute advantage while hitting those strikes at a 63.64% accuracy. On the flip side, Nelson is just 50.18% on his significant strikes.

In the takedown average, the difference is rather negligible, with Garcia holding a slim 1.27-to-1.10 lead. Both fighters have a 0.63 submission average, too.

Garcia, a.k.a. “Mean Machine,” enters this bout with 4 consecutive victories, all via KO/TKO. That includes a win over SeungWoo Choi last time out in just 96 seconds and a Round 2 KO/TKO of Melquizael Costa prior to that in Dec. 2023.

Garcia’s previous 6 bouts have ended by way of KO/TKO, with 5 wins. The last time he didn’t have an early finish was a unanimous-decision loss to Luis Pena in his UFC debut Feb. 29, 2020.

For Nelson, he has snapped onto track after a rough start to his UFC career. After going 1-4 in his 1st 5 bouts with the company, Nelson has 3 straight wins, including a KO/TKO in Round 1 against veteran Bill Algeo last time out. Prior to that, he had a pair of unanimous-decision victories over Fernando Padilla at Noche UFC and Blake Bilder at UFC 289.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 242: Garcia vs. Nelson odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:32 a.m. ET.

• Fight result (2-way line): Garcia -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Nelson +152 (bet $100 to win $152)
• Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +136 | Under -174)
• Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +450 | No -750)

UFC Fight Night 242: Garcia vs. Nelson picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

It’s a little too expensive to back Garcia (-180) straight up on the 2-way moneyline, but despite the 3-bout win streak for Nelson (+152), the latter cannot be trusted.

Instead, let’s roll with GARCIA BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-145) on the 5-way line. You could play just KO/TKO and DQ on the 7-way line, but it’s literally pennies more and you add the possibility of a tap out.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+136) is worth a roll of the dice here.

Yes, Garcia has 6 straight bouts decided by KO/TKO, with each of the past 5 fights not making it past the halfway point of Round 2. So, playing Over will take a little bit of a leap of faith.

However, Nelson has gone the distance in 4 straight fights, so he knows how to hang around and avoid the big kill shot.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

For more sports betting picks and tips

SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.