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Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions
By Ethan Matthew,
6 hours ago
The Baltimore Orioles (83-63) and the Boston Red Sox (73-72) meet Wednesday to finish their 3-game series. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Red Soxodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Baltimore leads 8-4
After their 12-3 loss in the 1st game, Baltimore responded by winning Game 2. Before the 4th inning, Orioles CF Cedric Mullins hit 2 HRs for a 3-0 lead. The Red Sox cut the lead behind DH Masataka Yoshida‘s RBI double and an Orioles balk, but Baltimore held on for a 5-3 win as the (+120) road underdog. The Under (9.5) also hit.
Orioles at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Dean Kremer vs. RHP Nick Pivetta
Kremer (7-9, 4.27 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 111 2/3 IP.
Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 2-0 home win against Tampa Bay Rays Friday
2024 road stats: 4-5, 4.26 ERA (57 IP, 27 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 11 starts
Career versus Red Sox: 2-4, 6.45 ERA (37 2/3, 27 ER), 1.54 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 8 starts
Pivetta (5-10, 4.38 ERA) makes his 23rd start and 24th appearance. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 123 1/3 IP.
Last start: No decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 3-1 home win against Chicago White Sox Friday
2024 home stats: 2-5, 4.61 ERA (54 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 12.0 K/9 in 9 starts and 1 appearance
Career versus Orioles: 8-3, 3.33 ERA (73 IP, 27 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 11 K/9 in 21 appearances (17 starts).
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Moneyline (ML): Orioles +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Red Sox -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+185) | Red Sox +1.5 (+150)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Orioles at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 4, Red Sox 2
The Red Sox post the 3rd-worst record (24-32) as a home favorite, lower than the Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies.
I like tailing that trend, especially with the Orioles currently at plus money and their pitcher with better splits on the road versus at home.
BET ORIOLES (+120).
Baltimore has the 3rd-best cover rate (46-36) coming off a win. Plus they are 32-16 ATS against the AL East, while Boston is 16-22. Overall the Orioles have the 3rd-best ATS record (80-66), behind 2 teams (Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals) with losing records and are often taking points.
Since I already like Baltimore straight up, I would only put half a unit on them to cover too.
As a home favorite, Boston has an Under record of 30-23-3 (56.6%). In their last 8 road games, Baltimore is 4-4 on O/U while Boston is 6-2 toward the Under in their last 8 games at home.
LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-120).
If you are looking to place a bet on this game, be sure to sign up for some sportsbook promos first and claim your welcome offers.
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