Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

The Tampa Bay Rays (71-75) and the Cleveland Guardians (84-62) open a 4-game series on Thursday. First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Rays vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Rays lead 2-1

Tampa Bay won 2 of 3 games against Cleveland at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg back on July 12-14. The pair of victories were each 2-0 shutouts against the Guardians, while Cleveland had a 4-2 win for its lone victory. The Under cashed in all 3 meetings, and the total has gone low in 4 straight in this series.

The Rays were swept in 3 road game against the Philadelphia Phillies earlier this week, while the Under cashed in 2 of those outings. Since Aug. 22, Tampa Bay is just 7-13 in the past 20 games, while the Under is on 5-3-1 run across the previous 9 contests.

The Guardians open the series 4 1/2 games clear of the 2nd-place Kansas City Royals in the AL Central with 14 regular-season games remaining. Cleveland returns home, where it is 43-25, the best record in the AL.

Cleveland swept the lowly Chicago White Sox earlier this week, outscoring them 16-7, with the Under going 2-1. The Over (7.5) cashed in Wednesday’s 6-4 series finale, halting a 8-0-2 run to the Under in the 10 games prior.

Rays at Guardians projected starters

RHP Ryan Pepiot vs. RHP Gavin Williams

Pepiot (8-6, 3.66 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 113 IP.

• Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H (1 solo HR), 2 BB, 4 K in 7-1 road victory vs. Baltimore Orioles Saturday
• 2024 road splits: 5-3, 3.23 ERA, 47 1/3 IP, 17 ER, 8 HR, 1.14 WHIP, .223 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 14 BB, 48 K in 9 starts
• Last 7 games: 4-1, 2.17 ERA, 37 1/3 IP, 9 ER, 12 BB, 35 K, 1.18 WHIP
• Career vs. Guardians: 1-0, 0.90 ERA, 10 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 2 appearances (1 start)

Williams (3-8, 5.25 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 60 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 0 K in 7-2 road setback vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday
• 2024 home splits: 0-5, 7.54 ERA, 22 2/3 IP, 19 ER, 4 HR, 1.76 WHIP, .316 OBA, 10 BB, 30 K in 5 starts
• Last 7 games: 2-5, 6.68 ERA, 31 IP, 23 ER, 15 BB, 33 K, 1.39 WHIP
• Career vs. Rays: 0-0, 1.80 ERA, 10 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 12 K in 2 starts

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Rays at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:41 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Rays +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Guardians -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-185) | Guardians -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -145 | U: +110)

Rays at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 6, Guardians 3

The RAYS (+125) are a strong play as an underdog in this series opener behind Pepiot.

The Guardians (-150) are coming off a 3-game sweep of the White Sox, but even though Cleveland is at home, it’s a bad choice with Williams on the hill. He has struggled with an 0-5 record and 7.54 ERA at home this season, and he has a 2-5 record and 6.68 ERA in his past 7 starts at all venues. Williams just cannot be trusted, and only due to injuries, he remains in the rotation.

The Rays +1.5 (-185) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s way too expensive if you require insurance. Back Tampa Bay straight up on the moneyline for a much better value.

PASS.

OVER 7.5 (-145) is the play due to the poor pitching of Williams lately. His splits at home, as well as his production in the past 7 starts, suggest its possible for Tampa Bay to cash high all on its own.

While the Under is 8-1-2 in the past 11 games for the Guardians, go high, and feel confidently in doing so.

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