Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili prediction, pick: Will the ‘Sugar Show’ Sphere of influence end at UFC 306?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 306 main event between Sean O'Malley and Merab Dvalishvili ( ESPN+ pay-per-view).

Sean O’Malley UFC 306 preview

Sean O’Malley

Staple info:

• Record: (18-1 MMA, 10-1 UFC)
• Height: 5’11” Age: 29 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 72″
• Last fight: Decision win over Marlon Vera (March 9, 2024)
• MMA LAB (Arizona)
• Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ UFC bantamweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ Amateur MMA titles
+ Amateur boxing and kickboxing experience
+ 12 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Creative striking flow and feints
^ Variates looks and levels
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Coming forward and off the counter
+ Dynamic kicking arsenal
+ Shows improved offensive wrestling
+ Serviceable scrambling and grappling
+ Active and attacking guard

Merab Dvalishvili UFC 306 preview

Merab Dvalishvili

Staple info:

• Record: (17-4 MMA, 10-2 UFC)
• Height: 5’6″ Age: 33 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 68″
• Last fight: Decision win over Henry Cejudo (Feb.17, 2024)
• Camp: Syndicate MMA/Serra-Longo (Las Vegas)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Multiple sambo championships
+ Judo black belt
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 3 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 1 first-round finish
+ Relentless pace and pressure
+ Steadily improved striking technique
^ Variates looks and levels
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Works well from bodylock
+ Solid offensive wrestling
^ Chains attacks and scrambles well
+ Aggressive ground striker
^ Operates well in transition

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili point of interest: Striking with “The Sugar Show”

Feb 17, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Merab Dvalishvili moves in with a hit against Henry Cejudo during UFC 298 at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The main event for UFC 306 features a bantamweight title fight between Sean O'Malley and Merab Dvalishvili .

Despite looking like the second coming of Ziggy Sobotka from “The Wire,” there’s a lot more to O’Malley than meets the eye.

Although O’Malley initially struck me as a karate-boxing Conor McGregor clone when he first came off Dana White’s Contender Series, the native of Montana has appeared to use his chameleon-like abilities to piece together a solid striking game.

Competent from both stances, O’Malley flows and counters from the rear side like second nature. Whether he’s slipping on the inside to come over the top from orthodox or taking an angle to counter from southpaw, O’Malley’s ability to put opposition at the end of his punches is impeccable.

I’m also a big fan of O’Malley’s underrated bodywork, which could serve him well in this contest.

Whether he’s throwing crosses or front teeps, O’Malley does a good job of getting his opponent’s defenses to lower in order to open the door for change-ups high. That said, “The Sugar Show” will need to be extra careful when it comes to his striking positions opposite a threat like Dvalishvili.

An aggressive fighter by nature, Dvalishvili has no issues when it comes to bringing the fight to his opponents.

Although Dvalishvili’s background is in judo and sambo, the Georgian fighter has been steadily shoring up his striking under the care of Ray Longo and company. Not only has Dvalishvili cleaned up on his general technique, but the 33-year-old has also been incorporating more things like feints to play off of.

Dvalishvili appears to have an impeccable sense of timing, seemingly utilizing his own awkward rhythms to throw off his opposition. Whether he’s connecting punches to takedowns or mixing in the occasional spinning assault, Dvalishvili can be a difficult character to get a beat on.

Dvalishvili may stage attacks a little bit too much off the backfoot for my liking, but the Serra-Longo product has shown that he’s not afraid to get dirty when he needs to.

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili breakdown: Winning the wrestling

Oct 22, 2022; Abu Dhabi, UAE; Petr Yan (red gloves) and Sean O’Malley (blue gloves) during UFC 280 at Etihad Arena. Mandatory Credit: Craig Kidwell-USA TODAY Sports

Given that wrestling is a crux of Dvalishvili’s game, no one should be shocked to see him test O’Malley early and often in that department.

A flexible takedown artist, Dvalishvili has many tools at his disposal.

Although Dvalishvili traditionally favors single-leg snatches (like a lot of sambo-based practitioners we’ve seen in the octagon), the Serra-Longo standout has incorporated a lot more double-legs since training stateside.

From hitting shots in the open to completing doubles against the fence, Dvalishvili can be a difficult customer to dissuade. And when Dvalishvili does get his man down, he’s not shy about immediately looking to land strikes in transition.

Dvalishvili also appears to be a problem inside the clinch, making himself genuine nightmare material whenever allowed to establish the bodylock. That said, his opponent is no slouch inside of closed quarters.

Despite surrendering takedowns to lesser wrestlers in past fights, O’Malley has made measurable improvements in the grappling department.

Aside from seeming to have a better understanding when it comes to utilizing underhooks and whizzers, O’Malley seems to be applying his athleticism in the scrambling department. Whether O’Malley is attempting switches that parlay into Granby rolls or just simply looking to control a wrist and stand, the 29-year-old has been putting work into that part of his game.

I suspect that O’Malley can also get off some serious ground and pound given his long frame and striking prowess, but I doubt that he’ll want to engage with someone like Dvalishvili for long.

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili odds

Despite the oddsmakers opening the challenger as the favorite, public money has flipped the betting lines, listing O’Malley -138 and Dvalishvili +110 via FanDuel.

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili prediction, pick

Merab Dvalishvili

Even though I don’t disagree with the opener, I’m not surprised in the slightest to see money pile in on O’Malley.

Aside from being the more hyped fan-favorite and younger fighter (something MMA gamblers swarm to religiously), O’Malley has legitimate skills that have impressed me and many for some time. Whether we’re talking about O’Malley’s impeccable distance management or his ever-improving scrambling ability, no one should be doubting the legitimacy of “The Sugar Show” at this point of the champion’s career.

Moreover, O’Malley, as I’ve stated in multiple breakdowns before, has a style that thrives in the larger octagon – which was more than apparent in his last outing.

However, despite Dvalishvili being at an on-paper disadvantage when it comes to both the footwork and the fighting terrain, the Georgian challenger has shown an ability to weather some serious storms en route to finding his stride. And once Davlishvili can find his way into this combat sambo-like spin cycle, the 10-year pro is relentless when it comes to his sticky form of assault.

Although I was initially leaning toward O’Malley knocking Davlishvili out with a knee within the first two frames, I find it incredibly difficult to fade “The Machine” due to his insane pace and determination.

I have a feeling that my initial lean toward an O’Malley knockout is the correct call, but I also believe that Davlishvili could be one of the toughest stylistic matchups for the champ outside of Umar Nurmagomedov. For that reason, I’ll semi-reluctantly side with the arguably more durable fighter in Davlishvili to survive the early storm and pull away down the stretch (possibly earning a late finish if O’Malley’s body fails to hold together).

Prediction: Dvalishvili by decision

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili start time, where to watch

As the main event, champ O’Malley and challenger Dvalishvili are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:30 a.m. ET. The main card airs on pay-per-view via ESPN+ .

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 306 .