ESPN’s SP+ prediction for Gators-Aggies in Week 3 SEC opener

Florida football prepares to host the Texas A&M Aggies this Saturday in the Swamp to open up its 2024 Southeastern Conference schedule. While the Gators are underdogs going into the Week 3 matchup, the numbers have been pretty close.

At the beginning of the week, ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his SP+ picks for the third official weekend of college football, including the UF-TAMU game. His computer model projects a 56% chance of a win for the visitors, giving them a 2.5-point edge and a final score of 30-27.

Compare that with the spread for the game (3.5 points) and a Florida victory predicted by the ATS.

The Gators sit at No. 31 (9.9 rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into Saturday’s affair while the Aggies are No. 20 (14.9 rating).

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Next up for the Gators

Florida will host Texas A&M inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 14. Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m. ET and the game will be broadcast on ABC.

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