The Crimson Tide received a bit of a scare last weekend against USF, although it might not appear so on the surface. Alabama won 42-16, but it led just 14-13 after 3 quarters, and 21-16 with less than 6 minutes to go. However, the Crimson Tide piled up 21 points in the final 5:50 to make things look more lopsided than they were.
Alabama’s defense actually allowed the Bulls to run for 206 yards, outrushing the Tide by 7 yards. The Crimson Tide also committed an uncharacteristic 13 penalties for 120 yards, while losing 3 fumbles.
Wisconsin has eased by both Western Michigan and FCS South Dakota by 14 points in each victory. The Badgers haven’t covered in either game, and the defense has yielded just 13.5 points per game (PPG) to help Wisconsin cash the Under in both outings.
Alabama is No. 4 in the US LBM Coaches Poll,conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Moneyline (ML): Alabama -800 (bet $800 to win $100) | Wisconsin +550 (bet $100 to win $550)
Against the spread (ATS): Alabama -16.5 (-110) | Wisconsin +16.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 49 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Alabama at Wisconsin picks and predictions
Prediction
Alabama 27, Wisconsin 13
There is no way you can risk 8 times your potential return on Alabama (-800) in this game. However, it’s hard to imagine Wisconsin (+550) pulling off the shocker, as the lumbering, defensive-minded Badgers do not appear to have the offense and speed to take down the speedy SEC visitors.
If Alabama is going to lose, it is because it beat itself, and there is no way it fumbles the ball away 3 times like it did last weekend.
PASS.
While WISCONSIN +16.5 (-110) has had some issues with consistency on offense, that defense has been nasty to date. Now, it will be interesting to see how it fares against a lightning fast Alabama -16.5 (-110) team, as opposed to FCS South Dakota and Western Michigan from the MAC.
We should see the Badgers hang around, though. Madtown is a tough place to play, and while previous iterations of Alabama might not be intimidated, we’re still learning about what to expect from Kalen DeBoer’s teams. Last week, the Tide was sloppy, and mistake-prone.
UNDER 49 (-110) is a strong play in this battle between the SEC and Big Ten.
Wisconsin’s lack of offense, and its powerful defense, is what is driving this under train. The venue also helps, while adding in the fact Alabama was its own worst enemy on offense for the first 3 1/2 quarters last week.
We’ll see if anything changes, but the body of work for both teams to date suggests going low.
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