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Notre Dame at Purdue odds, picks and predictions
By Kevin Erickson,
4 hours ago
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-1) travel to meet the Purdue Boilermakers (1-0) Saturday at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’scollege football odds around the Notre Dame vs. Purdueodds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Fighting Irish tumbled from No. 7 to No. 19 in the Coaches Poll after a stunning loss at home to Northern Illinois of the MAC last weekend. Notre Dame suffered the embarrassing 16-14 loss as a 28-point favorite, the biggest upset of the 2024 college football season so far.
The Irish have managed 18.5 points per game (PPG), while allowing 14.5 PPG, cashing the Under in each outing, while splitting 1-1 against the spread (ATS).
Purdue has played just once, routing FCS Indiana State 49-0 at Ross-Ade on Aug. 31, covering as a 35-point favorite. There isn’t a lot to glean from a beatdown of an FCS team, although the Boilermakers did take care of business, while allowing just 104 rushing yards, and 50 passing yards, while winning via rout despite a minus-1 turnover ratio.
The Boilermakers had 248 yards on the ground, and 335 yards through the air, while getting to the quarterback for 3 sacks. Purdue had 11 penalties for 110 yards, an area it must clean up.
Notre Dame leads this series 57-26-2, and it hasn’t lost to Purdue since 2007, officially winning 6 straight in the series. Wins in 2012-13 were vacated.
– US LBM Coaches Poll: Conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Moneyline (ML): Notre Dame -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Purdue +240 (bet $100 to win $240)
Against the spread (ATS): Notre Dame -7.5 (-110) | Purdue +7.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Notre Dame at Purdue picks and predictions
Prediction
Notre Dame 23, Purdue 19
Notre Dame (-300) is a super risky play going on the road after a major upset last weekend. However, it’s hard to imagine that the Fighting Irish didn’t have a hellish week of practice, working on all of the things it needs to correct, and then some.
QB Riley Leonard was a disaster against NIU, and the jury is still out on whether he can be the guy. In addition, he suffered an injury to his non-throwing shoulder against the Huskies, so there is doubt he can even go. Either QBs Steve Angeli or CJ Carr would start, if Leonard can’t start.
If we saw more than 1 game from Purdue (+240), and it was a good win over an FBS team, not a dress rehearsal against an FCS foe, we might have more confidence suggesting an upset.
PASS.
Back PURDUE +7.5 (-110) with the 7 and a hook. In fact, that half-point might come in super handy. We don’t know much about the Boilermakers, but what we saw was impressive.
However, Notre Dame -7.5 (-110) just cannot be trusted. Not only did it lose last week to a MAC team as a favorite of 4 TDs, but the Fighting Irish have questions under center, whether Leonard is able to play or not.
UNDER 47.5 (-110) is worth a look.
The Boilermakers pitched a shutout against its 1st opponent, albeit a lower-division school, while the Fighting Irish have had problems generating offense. Notre Dame has looked pretty good defensively against Texas A&M and NIU, though, and if it rebounds this week, it will be because it leaned into its D.
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