UFC 306: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko odds, picks and predictions

In a 5-round women’s flyweight championship bout in the co-main event, Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko meet Saturday at UFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFC at the Sphere in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 306: Grasso vs. Shevchenko odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: Grasso (16-3-1) | Shevchenko (23-4-1)

It’s a trilogy fight. Grasso picked up the women’s flyweight belt at UFC 285 with a 4th-round submission victory in March 2023. The rematch ended up in a draw at Noche UFC last September, so a year later, the 2 fighters are running it back for a 3rd fight.

For Grasso, she is 5-0-1 in the past 6 fights, with 4 of those bouts going the distance, including last time out against Shevchenko in 5 rounds.

As far as Shevchenko is concerned, the Kyrgyzstani southpaw fighter is looking to get her strap back. She topped Joanna Jedrzejczyk at UFC 231 and retained the belt for 7 title defenses before Grasso plucked it from her at UFC 285.

Shevchenko went the distance in that draw, but that was a rarity. Only 3 of her past 7 fights have ended up needing the judges to decide a victor.

Both fighters stand 5-foot-5, and Shevchenko has an ever-so-slight half-inch reach advantage. Grasso has a 4.67-to-3.28 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while Shevchenko is much more accurate on those strikes at 68.65%, while Grasso lands at 55.69%.

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UFC 306: Grasso vs. Shevchenko odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

• Fight result (2-way line): Grasso -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Shevchenko +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
• Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -200 | No +150)

UFC 306: Grasso vs. Shevchenko picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

I’m not one for conspiracy theories. I believe that these fights happen organically and there is nothing fishy about the UFC. However, the reason to pick SHEVCHENKO (+115) to win outright is because both of the previous fights have been so close.

I can see the former champ getting the job done and there actually being a 4th fight in the future to determine, once and for all, who the real champ of the division will be.

In addition, SHEVCHENKO BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+175) for the chance to nearly double up is also a good investment.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes (-200): Will the fight go the distance? is a little too expensive as a standalone bet. Now, if you were to fold this prop into a multi-leg parlay, it isn’t the end of the world.

However, for a straight bet, AVOID.

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