Lions vs. Buccaneers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

It’s Week 2 of the NFL season, yet it still feels very much like summer around the upper Midwest. As I sit with my Sunday morning coffee just before 7 a.m., it’s already 62 degrees on the way to near 90.

The unseasonably hot weather reminds many folks around Michigan of Florida. That’s a fitting sentiment as the Detroit Lions welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Ford Field later this afternoon. The fans packing the rafters in the home of the Lions will not give the visitors from Florida a warm welcome as the two teams renew a rekindling rivalry.

Detroit beat the Bucs in the NFC Divisional Round, 31-23. Both teams are gunning to go 2-0 and maintain their supremacy in their respective NFC divisions. It’s a big game for the early season.

Why I think the Lions will win

It’s normally considered trite to lead with injuries to the opponent, but the loss of safety Antoine Winfield Jr. in the middle of the Buccaneers defense cannot be overstated. He’s their best player and Winfield plays a position that is hypercritical to stopping Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta from exploiting the middle of the field in the passing game.

Pair that with injuries at outside cornerback, where the Bucs will be quite shorthanded even if Zyon McCollum is cleared from his brain injury to play. Tampa’s secondary might remind some Lions fans of Detroit’s own inadequate patchwork in the early Dan Campbell years. Tyrek Funderburk and Tavierre Thomas each playing significant roles against a Lions passing attack that is looking to bounce back from a subpar overall Week 1 is a recipe for Goff and St. Brown to get right quickly.

I also like the scheduling quirk. After playing the Rams last week, the Lions draw a Bucs team with new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. He’s a progeny of the Sean McVay/Rams offensive system. A familiar system, one the Lions played against just last week.

Tampa Bay is very talented, no doubt about it. But the basic scheme and style of play the Bucs bring isn’t much different from what the Lions played in Week 1. No radical changes of approach, no real divergent attack. Both offenses are based on having two very skilled primary outside wide receivers, a quarterback who makes quick, good decisions, and a run game that is meant to be a good complementary weapon, not a feature. Game prep for Aaron Glenn and the Lions defense was fairly easy this week.

Contrast that with Tampa Bay. Last week the Bucs played Washington, a team led by rookie QB Jayden Daniels operating Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. Daniels was a bigger threat with his legs, taking off 16 times out of the pocket and almost topping 100 yards on the ground. He only threw for 184. Washington’s leading receiver amongst wide receivers was rookie Luke McCaffrey, who caught three passes for 18 yards.

Now they’ve got to play Goff, St. Brown, LaPorta, Week 1 star Jameson Williams and an offensive line that shines in pass protection. That’s not even bringing the lethal power ground game of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs into the equation. Tampa Bay is a very well-coached defense between head coach Todd Bowles and co-DCs in Kacy Rogers and Larry Foote, but having to uproot everything they did in Week 1 to prep for Week 2, and doing it without several key pieces, yeah–that’s a very difficult assignment.

What worries me about the Bucs

Let’s go back to the Bucs offense. Baker Mayfield leads the NFL in touchdown passes, and he looked very sharp last Sunday. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are as good of a 1-2 wideout tandem as the Lions will see all year, and that includes Kupp and Nacua. It’s great that Lions CB Carlton Davis has years of experience practicing against those guys, but there’s only so much that can help.

The Lions pass rush has to impact Mayfield. He’s more mobile than Matthew Stafford last week, but he’s also prone to lapses of judgment when he’s pressured. Losing Marcus Davenport is a rough break for the Lions, and someone else must step up to help Aidan Hutchinson, who draws perhaps his toughest assignment of the year in Tristan Wirfs. Mayfield, with those receivers, with a more promising run game that the Bucs showed in Week 1, that’s an offense that can win this game.

The middle-of-the-field defense in Tampa Bay is designed to stuff the run. Nose Vita Vea is one of the best at it, and LB Lavonte David is still great. Even without Winfield, David and his fellow LBs are swift and savvy in the middle of the field and can complicate the intermediate passing game like the Rams did so effectively against the Lions in Week 1.

Final thought and score prediction

During the week, I predicted the Lions to win 31-25. I still like that basic margin of victory, but I do see how the score could wind up being a little lower–even with the defensive injuries on both teams.

Lions 27, Buccaneers 21