ESPN's SP+ prediction for Florida-Mississippi State in Week 4

The Florida football team hits the road in Week 4 to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville looking for its first FBS and SEC win of the 2024 campaign.

With embarrassing losses to the Miami Hurricanes in the opening week and the Texas A&M Aggies last week — both in the Swamp — the Gators hope a little time away from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium helps relieve some of the pressure building up under Billy Napier and his crew.

The good news is that ESPN writer Bill Connelly’s SP+ predictions this week favor the Orange and Blue on the road, foreseeing a 64% chance of victory by a margin of 5.5 points for Florida. The computer model projects a final score of 32-26.

Compare that with the spread for the game (UF, -4.5 points) and a Gators victory predicted by the ATS.

Napier and Co. sit at No. 36 out of 134 FBS schools (8.4 overall rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into Saturday’s affair while the Bulldogs are No. 69 (0.3 rating).

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Up next for the Gators

Florida will play their first road game of the season as they travel up to Starkville to play against the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday, Sept. 21. Kickoff is set for noon ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.

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