The Minnesota Golden Gophers 2-2 (0-1 Big Ten) and No. 12 Michigan Wolverines 3-1 (1-0 Big Ten) meet at Michigan Stadium Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET (FOX). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’scollege football odds around the Minnesota vs. Michiganodds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Minnesota’s offense has been underwhelming so far, despite coach PJ Fleck’s preseason optimism. They sit 2-2 after a a rough 31-14 loss against the Iowa Hawkeyes. QB Max Brosmer threw for 209 yards with 2 TD, but his 2 INTs really hurt. RB Darius Taylor also had a tough day, managing just 34 yards on 10 carries.
Defensively, the Golden Gophers have been solid, allowing only 12.5 points per game (PPG) to rank 15th nationally, but the offense, averaging 26.5 PPG, has been inconsistent. If the Gophers want to bounce back, they’ve got to get the offense rolling.
After Michigan lost to the Texas Longhorns, a lot of people were quick to count the Wolverines out. But Michigan responded in a big way, pulling off a 27-24 win over the USC Trojans. The Wolverines made a change at QB, going with Alex Orji, though he went just 7 of 12 for 32 yards. He did more damage on the ground with 43 rushing yards on 13 carries. The real star was RB Kalel Mullings, who gained 159 yards and scored 2 TDs on 17 carries.
Michigan’s offense is averaging 24.3 PPG, while the defense has been solid, allowing 20.8 points. If the defense holds strong, they should stay competitive, but the offense must step it up a bit.
– Rankings:US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Moneyline (ML): Minnesota +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Michigan -400 (bet $400 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Minnesota +10 (-110) | Michigan -10 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 35.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Minnesota vs. Michigan picks and predictions
Prediction
Michigan 24, Minnesota 21
PASS.
The Golden Gophers will give the Wolverines all they can handle on Saturday afternoon, but Michigan (-400) will come out on top. I’ll take my wager to the spread.
BET MINNESOTA +10 (-110).
The Gophers are ready to keep this game tight, especially after their last performance against Iowa. While their defense might struggle to contain Michigan’s running game, I have a feeling Minnesota’s offense is going to step up and score at least 21 points, which should help them cover the spread.
There’s also some interesting history to back this up. The road team has won 4 of the last 5 matchups between these 2 teams. Plus, Michigan has had a tough time covering the spread in September, failing to do so in their last 6 games as a home favorite against teams that aren’t ranked. And let’s not forget that underdogs have covered in 3 of Michigan’s last 4 outings. So, take Minnesota +10 and expect them keep it close.
Minnesota is set to bounce back offensively after their last outing against Iowa. Their defense may have a tough time against Michigan’s powerful running game, but Minnesota will score at least 21 points, pushing that total higher.
Consider this: the road team has won 4 of the last 5 matchups and Michigan has struggled to cover the spread in their last six September games as a home favorite against unranked teams. With these trends in play, expect a higher-scoring game.
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