San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and predictions
By Kevin Erickson,
22 days ago
The San Diego Padres (91-68) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (88-71) begin a 3-game series Friday at Chase Field in Phoenix. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network/ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’sMLB odds around the Padres vs. Diamondbacksodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 5-5
The Padres lost the final 2 games in a 3-game set against the Dodgers in Los Angeles after winning the series opener Tuesday 4-2. San Diego lost 7-2 on Thursday as a slight underdog (-106) as the Over (8.5) cashed. That halted a 8-0-1 run to the Under dating back to Sept. 15.
The Diamondbacks stopped a 3-game losing streak with an 8-2 victory against the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday as a heavy favorite (-256) while the Over (9) cashed. The total is on a 3-0-1 run for the D-backs.
These teams haven’t met since July 5-7 in San Diego, when Arizona took 2 of 3 games at Petco Park. The Over cashed in all 3 meetings in that series, with the Snakes averaging 8.0 runs per game (RPG), and the Padres averaging 5.3 RPG.
The last time these teams met in Phoenix was back on May 3-5, with the Padres winning 2 of 3 games. The Over cashed in 2 of those 3 outings, too. The Over is on a 6-0 run, while hitting in 8 of the past 9, in this series.
Padres at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Merrill Kelly
Darvish (6-3, 3.18 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 76 1/3 IP.
Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H (2 solo HR), 0 BB, 9 K in 4-2 home victory vs. Chicago White Sox Sunday
2024 road splits: 3-0, 2.05 ERA, 22 IP, 5 ER, 16 H, 3 HR, 4 BB, 21 K, .203 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 0.91 WHIP in 4 starts
Last 7 games: 3-2, 4.04 ERA, 35 2/3 IP, 16 ER, 34 H, 7 BB, 37 K, 1.15 WHIP
Career vs. Diamondbacks: 8-4, 3.55 ERA, 101 1/3 IP, 40 ER, 85 H, 15 HR, 35 BB, 131 K, 1.18 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 in 18 starts
Kelly (5-0, 3.71 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 68 IP.
Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 5-0 road victory vs. Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday
2024 home splits: 2-0, 3.55 ERA, 33 IP, 13 ER, 7 HR, 8 BB, 23 K, .228 OBA, 1.09 WHIP in 6 starts
Last 7 games: 2-0, 4.70 ERA, 38 1/3 IP, 20 ER, 10 BB, 32 K, 1.28 WHIP
Career vs. Padres: 9-3, 3.05 ERA, 82 2/3 IP, 28 ER, 11 HR, 31 BB, 78 K, 1.19 WHIP in 15 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Moneyline (ML): Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Diamondbacks -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-200) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+165)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Padres at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Diamondbacks 3
The PADRES (+105) are a solid road ‘dog behind the veteran Darvish, as they look to snap a 2-game losing streak and build a little momentum heading into the postseason.
The Diamondbacks (-125) aren’t as good of a play because of Kelly. While he is unbeaten this season in 5 decisions, he was lifted from his most recent start due to cramping. It’s uncertain how long he’ll be able to go, and how effective he’ll be.
The Padres +1.5 (-200) are a little too pricey for a standalone wager, if you’re like a little bit of insurance. However, as part of a multi-leg parlay, throwing them in isn’t the end of the world.
The Padres have won Darvish’s past 4 starts since he returned from injury, so they’re a much better play straight up.
PASS.
UNDER 9 (-115) is a solid play in a game which should have a playoff feel. The Padres are already into the postseason field, and the Diamondbacks are a good bet to snap up one of the other Wild Card spots.
While the Under has cashed in 6 straight meetings, these teams haven’t faced each other since early July, so that can be discarded. What’s more important is that the Under is 8-1-1 in the past 10 games for the Padres.
And, while the Diamondbacks have cashed high at a 3-0-1 clip in the past 4 games, the Under is 3-1 in Kelly’s past 4 starts.
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