Illinois at Penn State odds, picks and predictions

The No. 21 Illinois Fighting Illini (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) visit the 8th-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0, 0-0) Saturday for a Big Ten showdown. Kickoff from Beaver Stadium is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Illinois vs. Penn State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

Illinois picked up a 31-24 OT win at the Nebraska Cornhuskers Sept. 20, covering as a 9.5-point underdog. The Illini trailed 24-17 early in the 4th but tied it with 10:36 to go on QB Luke Altmyer’s 6-yard TD pass to WR Brandon Henderson and the ensuing extra point. Altmyer’s 4th TD pass — a 4-yarder to WR Pat Bryant — gave the Illinois the lead in OT and the defense responded with 3 sacks in extra frame to seal the come-from-behind victory.

Penn State crushed the visiting Kent State Golden Flashes 56-0 last Saturday, covering as a 49-point favorite. The Nittany Lions held the Golden Flashes to just 66 yards (48 rushing, 18 passing) and 6 first downs — Penn State’s offense finished with 718 yards and 40 first downs. QB Drew Allar threw for 309 yards and 3 TDs in the rout, while backup QB Beau Pribula and TE Tyler Warren each tossed a TD.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

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Illinois at Penn State odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 9:21 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Illinois +600 (bet $100 to win $600) | Penn State -900 (bet $900 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Illinois +17.5 (-105) | Penn State -17.5 (-115)
• Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Illinois at Penn State picks and predictions

Prediction

Penn State 34, Illinois 21

PASS.

Penn State (-900) will come away with the win as the big favorite, but the price is not worth the risk of betting on. Back the spread and/or O/U instead.

LEAN ILLINOIS +17.5 (-105).

Penn State has yet to face tough competition this season. It allowed a so-so Bowling Green team to stay within 1 score in its 2nd game, a 34-27 home victory as a 34-point favorite.

I expect Illinois to come out with some urgency that may shock Penn State. Look for this to be a tight game early with the Nittany Lions slightly pulling away in the 2nd half, but not enough to cover the 17.5 points.

This is a lean because the numbers say that Penn State is simply the better team and there is potential for Illinois to get blown out here.

BET OVER 47.5 (-115).

Illinois has a defense that is, at best, middle of the pack in the Big Ten as it allows 292.2 yards per game, according to NCAA.com. On the other side, Penn State’s offense ranks 7th in the country with 537.7 yards per game.

Penn State averages 41.3 points per game, while Illinois averages 32.3, so the averages say this game should blow well past the Over of 47.5.

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