Packers vs. Vikings: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 4

Lambeau Field will be the setting for a key early season showdown in the NFC North. In Week 4, the Green Bay Packers — who have won back-to-back games — are hosting the undefeated Minnesota Vikings in the first divisional matchup for both teams.

Both of these teams are surprising in a good way to start the season. The Packers have won back-to-back games with backup Malik Willis under center, while the Vikings have two of the best wins of the season over the San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans.

The winner of Sunday’s battle will get an important early advantage in the race to be the champion of the NFC North, which looks like one of the NFL’s best divisions in 2024.

Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 4:

Return of 33

This storyline has been beaten to death, but it’s still an important one. Aaron Jones coming back to Green Bay isn’t just the return of some over-the-hill former star. In three games with the Vikings, Jones has 325 total yards, two games with 100 or more total yards and two touchdowns for an offense that ranks third in scoring. He looks explosive, both as a runner (5.4 yards per carry) and receiver. Can the Packers contain his slashing style? The Vikings split reps and touches at running back between Jones and Ty Chandler, but you can bet Minnesota will give the Packers former running back a few extra touches on Sunday. Dating back to last season and including the postseason, Jones has seven games with 100 or more total yards in his last eight. As Matt LaFleur said, he is a “problem.”

Pressuring Darnold

Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold has been one of the NFL’s best passers under pressure in 2024. Despite being under pressure on roughly 40 percent of his dropbacks, Darnold has thrown an NFL-high four touchdown passes without a turnover-worthy play under pressure this season. The Packers must keep Darnold disrupted in the pocket and hope regression to the mean arrives. Pressured quarterbacks are the most inconsistent and turnover-prone quarterbacks, and no one should expect Darnold to be this good against pressure all season. The Vikings have two excellent offensive tackles, but there are big issues on the inside, particularly at center (Garrett Bradbury, 10 pressures allowed) and right guard (Ed Ingram, 10 pressures allowed). Devonte Wyatt and Kenny Clark need to be disruptive.

Testing a top run defense

The Vikings are allowing only 3.6 yards per attempt against the run to start this season, but it’s worth noting that Brian Flores’ defense has faced the Giants (no Saquon Barkley), 49ers (no Christian McCaffrey) and Texans (no Joe Mixon) to start the season. The Packers are the No. 1 rushing offense in football and Josh Jacobs is healthy and rolling. In response to losing Jordan Love to injury, Matt LaFleur has devised a deep, complex run game that features a good mix of misdirection and power. Expect him to lean on the run regardless of who is playing quarterback Sunday. The Packers must stay on schedule on early downs and avoid the obvious passing situations that Flores loves. A heavy dose of Jacobs, Emanuel Wilson and even Jayden Reed and other receivers in the run game is likely.

Takeaways

The Packers have generated three takeaways in three straight games to start 2024 and rank first in the NFL with nine total takeaways. The Vikings have generated two takeaways in three straight games to start 2024 and rank third in the NFL with six total takeaways. Winning the ball is a priority every week, and when two teams are so good at taking away the ball, the turnover margin becomes the biggest winning factor. Can Jordan Love or Malik Willis keep the ball protected against a Vikings defense that has confused Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud the last two weeks? And can Jeff Hafley’s defense force Sam Darnold into a bad decision or two? No one should be surprised if a turnover ends up being the game’s biggest play on Sunday.

Facing J.J.

The much-anticipated matchup of Jaire Alexander vs. Justin Jefferson might not happen. Alexander has a pair of lower-body injuries and is questionable to play. Even if Alexander isn’t available, the Packers must find ways of keeping Jefferson from taking over the game. The challenge is amplified by the Packers’ injury situation at cornerback (Carrington Valentine is doubtful to play) and the return of 2023 first-round pick Jordan Addison. Sam Darnold has distributed the football to a variety of targets without forcing it to Jefferson, so the Packers can’t over-focus on Jefferson and let others go wild. Finding the right mix is the big challenge for first-year defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley.

Prediction: Packers 24, Vikings 23 (0-3)

After two weeks of doubting the Malik Willis-Matt LaFleur magic, we’re back on win-predicting train — regardless of who is playing quarterback on Sunday. The Packers have proven capable of four key winning factors: creating explosive plays, generating turnovers, protecting the quarterback and disrupting the opponent’s quarterback. LaFleur’s team probably needs to do all four to take down the unbeaten Vikings. Protecting the quarterback against Brian Flores’ defense will be a challenge, but if the Packers can handle business pre-snap and at the line of scrimmage, explosive plays could be abundant. And there are good matchups for the Packers defensive front against the Vikings offensive line. One takeaway or explosive play provides the difference for the Packers late in a one-point win.