Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

The Washington Nationals (70-90) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (94-66) to Nationals Park Saturday for the 2nd game of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 8-3

The Phillies are 2 games behind the LA Dodgers for the top spot in the National League — Philadelphia has the breaker. The Phillies lost to the Nationals 9-1 to open the series Friday. They have lost 4 of their last 6 games. They are just 40-39 on the road this season and 79-81 against the spread (ATS) overall. Philadelphia beat the Chicago Cubs in 2 of 3 games prior to this series.

The Nationals snapped their 4-game losing streak with the win Friday. They were swept in a 3-game home series by the Kansas City Royals and dropped 3 of 4 games to the Cubs prior to that. Washington is 37-42 at home this season and 87-73 ATS overall.

Phillies at Nationals projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore

Wheeler (16-7, 2.56 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 193 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 2-1 road loss to New York Mets Sunday
• 2024 away stats: 6-4, 2.83 ERA (92 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 15 starts
• Career vs. Nationals: 14-15, 4.50 ERA (202 IP, 101 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 34 starts

Gore (10-12, 4.04 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 160 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 5-1 road win over Cubs Sept. 21
• 2024 home stats: 7-6, 3.99 ERA (88 IP, 39 ER), 1.63 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 in 18 starts
• Career vs. Phillies: 1-4, 5.72 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.53 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 in 8 appearances (7 starts)

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Phillies at Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Phillies -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Nationals +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Phillies -1.5 (-115) | Nationals +1.5 (-105)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Phillies at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Nationals 3

PASS.

There’s no value here. Wheeler is an ace, and the Phillies (-200) should come out on top. They are unplayable at these odds, though.

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (-115).

The Phillies have dominated with Wheeler on the mound this season. They have won and covered in 3 of his last 5 starts, having outscored opponents 28-7. Philadelphia has a much steadier offense as well, having scored 4 or more runs in 3 of its last 4 games.

The Nationals have been held scoreless in 3 of their last 5 games and lost 6 of their last 10 by multiple runs. With those trends in mind, back PHILLIES -1.5 (-115).

BET OVER 7.5 (-110).

The Nationals have gone Over in 2 straight games and 5 of their last 10. They have scored 13 runs over their last 2 games, so there has been some life in their offense.

Similarly, the Phillies are 6-1-1 O/U in their last 8 games. They have scored at least 6 runs in 4 of their last 8 as well. Take OVER 7.5 (-110).

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