Week 6 staff predictions for Florida-UCF matchup in the Swamp

Florida football returns to action this weekend after a bye week that followed a road win in Starkville over the Mississippi State Bulldogs, welcoming the UCF Knights to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium this Saturday.

This will be the fourth meeting all-time between the two schools on the collegiate gridiron, with the Gators holding a 2-1 edge. However, the Knights won the previous meeting in the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl to finally beat their in-state rivals.

Ahead of the Week 6 action in Gainesville, the Gators Wire staff convened to offer their respective predictions for this Saturday’s pigskin affair. Take a look below at our various takes.

David Rosenberg

If you asked me who would win this game anytime before Saturday, I would have confidently answered UCF with a minus-9.5 spread. But Week 5 of the college football season came and went, and the Knights looked very beatable at home against a Colorado team expected to lose by two touchdowns. UCF is now a one-point favorite on the road against Florida, which is basically a toss-up.

At its best, Florida can win this game, but we rarely get to see Billy Napier’s bunch live up to expectations. It just feels like something will go wrong for the Gators — missed tackles, blown coverages, poor clock or talent management; take your pick. Don’t forget that UCF has the second-best rushing attack in the country this season, and Florida just gave up 200-plus yards on the ground to a Mississippi State team that isn’t known for running the ball.

Then there’s the argument in favor of Florida, which says UCF is (and will always be) a “little brother” to the state’s flagship and only SEC program. Gus Malzahn is 27-17 with the Knights and 6-11 against Power Four programs — including a win over a lame-duck Florida team in the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl before Billy Napier was in charge. Malzahn has clock management issues of his own, too, and the Swamp features one of the most intimidating atmospheres in college football, regardless of what Cam Ward says.

This is shaping up to be a game of who can shoot themselves in the foot more on Saturday… My bet is that Florida finds a way to blow it, but it’s still a close game.

Prediction: RJ Harvey goes for four touchdowns and Colton Boomer nails a 45-yarder in the fourth to seal it.

UCF 38, Florida 35

Aidan Gallardo

The Gators are coming fresh off a bye week which can be beneficial, but looking at their rush defense, it could be problematic against UCF this Saturday.

The Knights come off a loss to Colorado but previously showcased a formidable ground game. UCF quarterback KJ Jefferson, despite a shaky start in the season, has the dual-threat capability that could challenge Florida’s defense.

With UCF giving up 82 points combined in their last two games, I expect the Gators’ offense to move the ball down the field and put up some points.UCF’s versatile offense might give them a slight edge if they can control the game tempo with their running game.

However, Florida’s advantage at home and recent passing efficiency could very well turn the tide in their favor. I expect a high-scoring game with Florida pulling off a close win.

Florida 31, UCF 28

Adam Dubbin

Florida still has a lot to work on and this game represents the last chance to calibrate before the schedule goes FUBAR.

After this, the Gators head to

, then come home to host Kentucky, then off to Jacksonville for a rivalry game with Georgia, then head out to Texas to face the Longhorns, then back to Gainesville for LSU… and still, the struggling Seminoles will be waiting for them at the end.

Just looking at the lineup for the next two months is exhausting in itself.

But before we get ahead of ourselves, Billy Napier and Co. enter the weekend with a 62% chance of winning according to the SP+ prediction, and by a margin of 5.1 points. The betting spread is a lot more narrow, but it does appear that Florida has the upper hand.

However, the Knights are not chopped liver and will certainly pose a challenge for the Gators — particularly on the ground — but can they survive the hostile environment of the Swamp?

Probably not.

Florida 27, UCF 24

Up next for the Gators

Florida vs. UCF kicks off at 7:45 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 5. The game will be broadcast on the SEC Network.

Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.