Rashad Evans sees Khalil Rountree's 'recipe for an upset' vs. Alex Pereira at UFC 307

Rashad Evans is forecasting a light heavyweight title change in the UFC 307 main event.

UFC Hall of Famer for former 205-pound champion Evans thinks Khalil Rountree is a live underdog going into his clash with reigning titleholder Alex Pereira, which takes place Saturday at Delta Center in Salt Lake City (ESPN+ pay-per-view, ESPNews, ESPN+).

The vibe coming from Rountree (13-5 MMA, 9-5 UFC) and his team is that he’s going to play right into Pereira’s (11-2 MMA, 8-1 UFC) desire position by standing and striking. For Evans’ vision of a win to come to life, he said that can’t be entirely the case.

“I think it plays out on the feet,” Evans told “The Bohnfire” podcast with MMA Junkie senior reporter Mike Bohn. “For sure it’s going to be like that on Alex’s end, but I feel like because Alex brings the challenge that he does bring and Khalil’s been working on his standup in Thailand and he really prides himself with his standup, I feel like he’s going to test it. And it may be to his own detriment, but I feel like that’s where he wants to go with it. That’s the hill he’s going to die on. So he’s going to stand and strike. But what I feel what would probably better for him is a mix of the two. Being able to strike and then at the same time utilize your clinch and utilize the grappling positions. Not only does it zap some of that strength and some of that explosiveness and some of that power out of Pereira, but it also frustrates him.

“It’s about fighting smart. When you fight smart and don’t fight with an ego, you can choose the most effective game plan for your opponent. And I feel like if Khalil is going to win this fight, I would definitely tell Alex that it’s a striking-only event. But I’m definitely going to wrestle.”

Pereira enters UFC 307 at the height of his powers. He has been a wrecking ball inside the octagon, winning three championship bouts since November and now attempting to make all kinds of UFC history. Many were surprised when the No. 8 fighter in the official UFC rankings Rountree was selected as his opponent, and because of that expectations are low.

Evans thinks that’s perfect scenario for the soft-spoken Rountree, especially because he’s displayed the best version of himself in recent fights.

“Khalil is slipping under the radar and Khalil is sneaky good,” Evans said. “People are like, ‘How is he sneaky good?’ It’s because I see that he’s good, but as you can see there are some holes. There are some holes can be exploited. We’ve seen holes because in his game when he’s lost. So you still feel like those holes are there. But I feel like the Khalil that we knew that made those mistakes is a different Khalil than we’re seeing right now. I feel like the Khalil that we have right now is a much more confident Khalil. A fight who really knows his game and really has taken the time to perfect his style. There’s a difference from when you’re trying to put tools in your toolbox and trying to organize and what tools to use and what suit you best and what is the best time to use it. And I feel like Khalil is at that level right now.”

On top of the skill element, Evans is confident in Rountree’s chances of claiming gold at UFC 307 because of some variables that are hard to truly break down. Pereira has become one of the faces of the UFC in recent years, and with that comes a lot of outside obligations and potential distractions.

When everything is balled together in the perfect scenario, Evans said a wild result is brewing.

“I’m picking the upset,” Evans said. “I feel like when you start rubbernecking and start looking at all these other opportunities and when the money starts coming in easy. Who else knows what’s going on? There was a little situation outside the octagon for Alex outside the octagon a little while ago. Who knows what shook up out of that and what that is foretelling to? There’s a lot of things that can be said and a lot of things that can be assumed. But ultimately speaking, I feel like when a fighter starts to look beyond what’s already in front of him, I feel like it could be a recipe for an upset.”

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 307.