ALDS Game 1: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians meet in Game 1 of their best-of-5 ALDS Saturday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:08 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Guardians won 7-6

This is the 1st time the Tigers and Guardians have met in the postseason.

The Tigers picked up a pair of road victories to sweep the Houston Astros in an AL Wild Card Series. The Tigers won 3-1 as slight underdogs (+128) Tuesday in Game 1 behind SP Tarik Skubal in his postseason debut, and they completed the sweep with a 5-2 win Wednesday in Game 2 as moderate underdogs (+155). The Under — 6.5 and 7.5, respectively cashed in both games.

The last time these teams met at Progressive Field, they teams split a 4-game series in July with the favorite cashing in 3 of those 4 outings. The Over-Under also split 2-2. The favorite is 5-2 in 7 meetings this season in Cleveland, with the Over holding a slight 4-3 edge.

Despite losing the season series, Detroit outscored Cleveland 60-50 in the 13 games as 5 of the Guardians’ 7 wins were only by 1 run.

The AL Central Division champion Guardians, the No. 2 seed in the AL playoffs, went 7-3 in the final 10 home games in the regular season, while the Under cashed in the final 5 outings at Progressive Field. The Under went 20-3-3 in the final 26 regular-season games for Cleveland, too. However, the Guardians haven’t played since last Sunday.

Tigers at Guardians projected starters

LHP Tyler Holton vs. RHP Tanner Bibee

Holton (7-2, 2.19 ERA, 8 saves) made 9 regular-season starts and 57 relief appearances. He had a 0.78 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 94 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 5-2 win at Astros in Game 2 of AL Wild Card Game Series Wednesday
• 2024 road splits (regular season): 3-2, 1.54 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 3 HR, 0.65 WHIP, .158 OBA, 7.9 K/9 30 relief appearances (6 starts)
• Last 7 games: 1-1, 2.07 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 0.46 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 in 4 relief appearances, 3 starts
• Career vs. Guardians: 2-0, 0.93 (19 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 13 H, 3 BB, 13 K in 12 appearances (3 starts)
• 2024 vs. Guardians: 2-0, 0.00 ERA (12 1/3 IP), 8 H, 1 BB in 6 games (3 starts)
• Career postseason: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (1 1/3 IP), 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 1 start, 1 relief appearance — both last week vs. Astros

Bibee (12-8, 3.47 ERA) made 31 regular-season starts. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 173 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 6-1 home victory vs. Cincinnati Reds Sept. 24
• 2024 home splits: 5-4, 4.15 ERA (89 IP, 41 ER), 11 HR, 1.18 WHIP, .243 OBA, 10.0 K/9 in 16 starts
• Last 7 games: 2-3, 3.92 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 9.4 K/9
• Career vs. Tigers: 1-3, 5.28 (30 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 3 HR, 7.9 K/9 in 6 starts
• 2024 vs. Tigers: 1-1, 4.50 ERA (22 IP, 11 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 4 starts
• Has never appeared in postseason

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Tigers at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 5 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Tigers +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Guardians -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-185) | Guardians -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Tigers at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 3, Tigers 2

The GUARDIANS (-155) are a safe play at home as moderate favorites.

Bibee makes his 1st postseason start, but he was arguably one of the team’s best members of the rotation. He also posted a 2.64 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 9 ER) in September, his best ERA of any month in the regular season. He also posted a 1.98 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 3 ER) in his final 2 starts.

The Tigers (+130) are steaming in with a lot of momentum after sweeping the Astros, so it won’t be easy.

If you’d rather have a little insurance, Tigers +1.5 (-185) is a little too expensive. Detroit will cost nearly 2 times your potential return. At that price point, it’s too much risk and not enough reward, even though 5 of Detroit’s 6 losses to Cleveland in the regular season were by a single run.

If you like Detroit, just play it straight up.

PASS.

UNDER 7 (-105) is worth a look in this series opener.

The total went Under both games for the Tigers down in Houston in the Wild Card Series, while the Guardians saw the Under cash at a phenomenal 20-3-3 clip in their final 26 regular-season games, while going 12-1-1 in the final 14 home outings.

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