Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens odds, picks and predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs meet the Montreal Canadiens Wednesday in the 2024-25 season opener at Bell Centre. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Season series: First meeting; Maple Leafs won season series 3-0 in 2023-24

The Maple Leafs made the switch behind the bench, firing Sheldon Keefe, now coach with the New Jersey Devils, while adding Craig Berube. Toronto not only addressed a change in the voice from the top, but it added some much-needed defensive help with Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Chris Tanev.

The Canadiens missed the postseason in 2023-24, and they’re a good bet to be watching TV when the playoffs start next spring. Montreal did make a big splash by adding F Patrik Laine to beef up the offense, but that was the only notable addition to a roster which amassed just 76 points.

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Maple Leafs at Canadiens odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NHL odds. Lines last updated at 5:58 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Canadiens +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
• Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs -1.5 (+130) | Canadiens +1.5 (-155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Maple Leafs at Canadiens projected goalies

Joseph Woll (12-11-1, 2.94 GAA, .907 SV% in 2023-24) vs. Sam Montembeault (16-15-9, 3.14 GAA, .903 SV% in 2023-24)

Woll didn’t face the Canadiens last season, but he did kick aside 29 of the 30 shots he faced in a 5-1 home win Feb. 18, 2023, in his last start against Montreal. He was better on the road last season than he was at home, going 6-4-0 with a 2.36 GAA and .928 SV% in 10 regular-season road outings.

Montembeault is confirmed to face the Leafs. He has a respectable 2.82 GAA and .917 SV% in 22 home starts for the Habs last season. However, he struggled mightily in his 2 starts against the Leafs, going 0-2-0 with a 4.90 GAA and .821 SV%.

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Maple Leafs at Canadiens picks and predictions

Prediction

Maple Leafs 4, Canadiens 2

The Maple Leafs (-185) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s a risky play in the opener, as well as when backing a team on the road.

Yes, Toronto has won 5 in a row against Montreal, but AVOID, and look to the puck line instead.

The MAPLE LEAFS -1.5 (+130) are a much better value laying the goal and a half.

While Toronto has won 5 in a row in this series, 2 of the victories were by a single goal last season. Still, Toronto has outscored Montreal 25-11 in the win streak. As long as Woll does a good job, and Laine doesn’t go crazy in his team debut, the Leafs are the play on the puck line.

The UNDER 6.5 (-105) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at best.

Montembeault really had a hard time against Toronto in 2 starts last season, and that’s why you need to be cautious with betting low. The Under actually cashed in both meetings in Montreal last season, though, and the total has gone Under in 6 of the past 9 in the series.

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