ALDS Game 4: Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and predictions

The Cleveland Guardians visit the Detroit Tigers Thursday for Game 4 in their best-of-5 ALDS. First pitch from Comerica Park is set for 6:08 p.m. ET (TNT/Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Tigers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: Detroit leads 2-1

Detroit took the series lead with a 3-0 win Wednesday while covering as a +105 home underdog. The Tigers used 6 pitchers Wednesday with LHP Brant Hurter (3 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 K) getting the win. It was the 2nd straight 3-0 shutout win and the 1st time in Detroit’s history it had 2 shutouts in a single playoff series.

Cleveland has gone 20 innings without scoring since its 7-0 win in the opener of this series. The Guardians left 8 runners on base in Wednesday’s loss.

Guardians at Tigers projected starters

RHP Tanner Bibee vs. TBD

Bibee (12-8, 3.47 ERA) made 31 starts in the regular season. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 173 2/3 IP.

• Career vs. Detroit: 1-3, 5.28 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 31 H, 9 BB, 27 K in 6 starts
• Only career postseason start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in Saturday’s series opener vs. Detroit

No Detroit pitcher announced at time of publishing. RHP Reese Olson (4-8, 3.58 ERA) is a possibility. He pitched in Game 1 of the series (5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K).

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Guardians at Tigers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:03 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Guardians -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Tigers -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+155) | Tigers +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Guardians at Tigers picks and predictions

Prediction

Tigers 2, Guardians 1

LEAN TIGERS (-105).

Detroit is the hotter team, being 7-3 in its last 10 overall and 4-1 in the playoffs thus far while Cleveland is only 4-6 in its last 10 and 1-4 in its last 5 overall.

I expect the Tigers’ “Cinderella” run to continue here and carry on into the ALCS.

This is a lean because the Guardians are the slightly better team on paper and because Cleveland is 2-1 in its last 3 matchups vs. the Tigers in Detroit.

PASS.

Detroit will cover here as a +1.5 (-190) underdog, but a line set that high is not worth the risk of betting on, especially when the team has better odds on the ML.

I recommend passing here as betting on the ML and/or total instead, but if you are okay with the risk, you can divvy up units between the run line and moneyline.

BET UNDER 6.5 (+100).

The Under is 2-0-1 in the 3 games in this series and has hit in the last 2 games beween these squads in Detroit. For the Tigers, the Under is 4-0-1 in the playoffs and 7-2-1 in its last 10 overall. For Cleveland, the Under is 8-1-1 in its last 10 outings.

Be aware that this bet comes with risk as betting on an Under number as low as 6.5 is always risky. Especially without knowing Detroit’s starter, although if it’s Olson he did keep the Guardians in check in Game 1.

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