ALDS Game 4: New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and predictions
By Skip Snow,
7 hours ago
The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals meet Thursday in Game 4 of their best-of-5 ALDS. First pitch at Kauffman Stadium is slated for 7:38 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’sMLB odds around the Yankees vs. Royalsodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: New York leads 2-1; won regular season series 5-2
The Yankees took Games 1 and 3, winning both in 1-run fashion. Since Sept. 11, New York has gone a combined 13-7 with a 3.23 ERA.
Kansas City pitching has issued 17 free passes in the club’s 2 losses in the series. And Wednesday’s loss, a 3-2 affair that saw the Royals collect just 6 hits and 2 walks, marked K.C.’s 7th in a row at Kauffman Stadium.
Yankees at Royals projected starters
RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Michael Wacha
Cole (8-5, 3.41 ERA) made 17 starts in the regular season. He authored a 1.13 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 95 IP.
Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 6-5 win vs. Kansas City Royals Saturday (ALDS Game 1)
Career vs. Royals (regular season): 4-1, 2.77 ERA (52 IP, 16 ER), 0.86 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 8 starts
Owns a 3.05 ERA in 109 1/3 career playoff innings
Wacha (13-8, 3.35 ERA) made 29 starts in the regular season. He registered a 1.19 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 166 2/3 IP.
Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 6-5 loss at New York Yankees Saturday (ALDS Game 1)
Career vs. Yankees (regular season): 2-1, 2.97 ERA (57 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 11 appearances (9 starts)
Has registered a 5.36 ERA over 42 career playoff innings
Moneyline: Yankees -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Royals +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+110) | Royals +1.5 (-135)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Yankees at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 5, Royals 4
The Yankees were a -210 favorite with this same pitching matchup in Game 1 at Yankee Stadium. Neither hurler fared well, and New York earned a 6-5 victory in the series lid-lifter.
New York had a plus-18 run differential vs. Kansas City in the regular season. Per ESPN, the Cole has held Kansas City to an aggregate .603 OPS with a hefty strikeout rate.
Wacha logged some generous rates around the margins in posting his regular-season ERA, and his expected-ERA numbers were more-than-a-half-run higher. The K.C. righty has pitched quite well at Kauffman Stadium (2.89 ERA), and he does have a history of faring well in home starts. But his Game 1 performance and overall postseason line leave enough doubt in this spot.
The Royals offense was productive at home this season. But lately, Kansas City has struggled mightily on home turf. The ballclub is winless (0-7) at Kauffman since Sept. 16. Over those 7 games, the Royals offense has cranked out a whiff-laden .541 OPS.
BACK YANKEES (-155).
No interest here due to CF Aaron Judge struggles (1-for-14 in this series, .467 OPS across last 12 postseason games) and the likely Thursday unavailability of New York closer Luke Weaver, who got the final 5 outs in Wednesday’s win.
PASS.
Game 4 gets a slight temperature warm-up. Both starters are good, but slight fades compared to their surface numbers. Bullpens are a few days used and seen.
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