Missouri is No. 18 in the US LBM Coaches Poll. The Tigers had their 4-game winning streak, which included wins over the Boston College Eagles and Vanderbilt Commordores, snapped last week 41-10 by the No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies. Missouri has failed to cover in 3 straight games and is 2-3 against the spread (ATS). It has allowed 21 or more points in 3 straight games after giving up 0 in the 1st 2 weeks.
UMass has struggled this season. The independent Minutemen have 5 losses to Mid-American Conference teams with its lone win over Central Connecticut State. UMass is 1-1 straight up in games as a favorite and 0-4 in games as an underdog. The Minutemen have scored 20 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. UMass’ weakness has been mainly on the defensive side, allowing 31-plus points in 4 of its last 5 games.
– Rankings:US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Moneyline (ML): Missouri -5000 (bet $5,000 to win $100) | UMass +1600 (bet $100 to win $1,600)
Against the spread (ATS): Missouri -27.5 (-110) | UMass +27.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Missouri at UMass picks and predictions
Prediction
Missouri 42, UMass 10
PASS.
There’s no reason to take anything on the moneyline. The Tigers are far too expensive of a favorite to play, and the Minuteman have struggled too much against quality opponents to consider them as a plus-money underdog.
BET MISSOURI -27.5 (-110).
The Tigers have beaten up bad opponents. They took down Murray State 51-0 to open the season and then beat Buffalo 38-0 in the second week. Those are their lone covers of the season, and it is the lone times in which Missouri has been a favorite of 20 or more points.
UMass is 2-1-1 ATS as an underdog, but it is 0-2 ATS at home this season. The Minutemen have allowed 34 or more points in 3 of 6 games this season, and this will be the best offense they have played. Expect Missouri to tear through the UMass defense.
Take MISSOURI -27.5 (-110).
BET UNDER 54.5 (-110).
In both games which Missouri was this size of a favorite, it shut out its opponent. UMass has a better offense than those teams but not by much. It scored just 3 on the Buffalo Bulls and has scored 20 or fewer points in 4 of 6 games. This should be the best defense UMass has faced this season.
Missouri is 2-3 O/U this season, and it is 0-2 O/U in games against non-Power 5 opponents. The Tigers have scored over 38 points just once this season as well, so they may not drop 40-plus, especially after a disappointing 10-point effort in Week 6. Considering those trends, take UNDER 54.5 (-110).
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