The top-ranked Texas Longhorns (5-0, 1-0 SEC) meet the 16th-ranked Oklahoma Sooners (4-1, 1-1) Saturday at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Kickoff in the SEC game is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’scollege football odds around the Texas vs. Oklahomaodds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Longhorns and Sooners meet in the Red River Rivalry game in Dallas for the 1st time as members of the SEC. Texas leads the all-time series 63-51-5, with Oklahoma winning last season’s meeting 34-30 as a 4-point underdog as the Over (61.5) cashed.
Oklahoma has won 5 of the past 6 meetings, and 7 of the previous 9 outings, while the Over is 3-1 in the past 4. The Sooners are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in the previous 4 contests in the series, too.
Texas is coming off a sluggish 35-13 win over Mississippi State as a 37-point favorite last time out on Sept. 28, it’s 1st non-cover in 5 tries. The Under (59) cashed, halting a 3-0 run to the Over. The Longhorns are coming off a bye and have named QB Quinn Ewers the starter for Saturday over QB Arch Manning.
Oklahoma bounced back from a 25-15 loss in the conference opener to Tennessee, winning 27-21 at Auburn in Week 5. It is also coming off a bye. The Over is 2-1 in the past 3 games, and the Sooners are 1-1 ATS this season as underdogs.
– Rankings:US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Moneyline (ML): Texas -650 (bet $650 to win $100) | Oklahoma +450 (bet $100 to win $450)
Against the spread: Texas -14.5 (-110) | Oklahoma +14.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Texas vs. Oklahoma picks and predictions
Prediction
Texas 31, Oklahoma 20
We’ve seen a lot of wacky stuff happen in the past couple of weekends, including 5 top-10 teams go down to defeat last week in a crazy turn of events. Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but Texas (-650) should be able to get the job done against its archnemesis Oklahoma (+450).
Still, laying 6½ times your potential return is not a recommended play, and over the long term, bets like that are not a good strategy.
PASS.
OKLAHOMA +14.5 (-110) has the tools to not only keep this one within 2 TDs, but it isn’t inconceivable that the Sooners could trip up the top-ranked Texas -14.5 (-110) side. We’ve seen it frequently in this rivalry in recent seasons. The underdog is not only 6-4 ATS in the past 10 meetings since 2015, including 6-3 ATS in the past 9 Red River Rivalry games, but the underdog has won outright in 3 of the past 9 clashes at the Cotton Bowl.
A double-digit underdog is a perfect 3-0 ATS since 2015 in this series, too.
OVER 48.5 (-110) is worth a look, but don’t get carried away.
The Over is 3-1 in the past 4 installments, and the winning side has needed at least 34 points in each of the past 7 in the series. The winning side has needed at least 49 points in 3 of the past 4 in the series, with the losing team producing 45 points in 2 of the previous 4. The losing team actually has 27 or more points in 6 of the past 7, too.
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