NLDS Game 5: San Diego Padres at LA Dodgers odds, picks and predictions
By Kevin Erickson,
12 hours ago
The San Diego Padres and LA Dodgers meet in a decisive Game 5 of their best-of-5 NLDS Friday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’sMLB odds around the Padres vs. Dodgersodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Playoffs series: Tied 2-2; Padres won regular-season series 8-5
The winner heads to the NLCS to face the New York Mets. These teams split the regular-season series in Los Angeles 3-3.
With a 2-1 series lead, the Padres had the Dodgers on the ropes Thursday, but LA picked up an 8-0 victory in Game 4 as a moderate underdog (+118) while the total pushed (8) at most shops. The Over is 3-0-1 in this series.
The Dodgers piled up 12 hits in Game 4, with OF Mookie Betts, C Will Smith and 2B Gavin Lux each swatting HRs while picking up 2 RBIs apiece. LA used 8 pitches, going no more than 1 2/3 IP, while the Padres used 7 arms.
Padres at Dodgers projected starters
RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Darvish (7-3, 3.31 ERA) made 16 regular-season starts. He had a 1.07 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 81 2/3 IP.
Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 10-2 road victory in Game 2 in L.A. on Sunday in 1st postseason start of 2024
2024 road splits (regular season): 4-0, 2.63 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 7 BB, 25 K, .198 opponents’ batting average (OBA) in 5 starts
Career vs. Dodgers (regular season): 5-5, 2.27 ERA (91 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 0.85 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 in 15 starts
2024 vs. Dodgers (regular season): 1-0, 1.72 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 3 ER), .145 OBA, 1 HR, 6 BB, 12 K in 3 starts
Career postseason: 5-6, 3.88 ERA (65 IP, 57 K, 1.06 WHIP) in 12 starts
Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00 ERA) made 18 regular-season starts. He had a 1.11 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 90 IP.
Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 1 K in 7-5 home victory in Game 1 vs. L.A. Saturday in his 1st career postseason start
2024 home splits (regular season): 3-1, 3.88 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 9 BB, 55 K in 10 starts
2024/Career vs. Padres (regular season): 0-1, 12.00 ERA (6 IP, 2 ER), 1.67 WHIP, 2 BB 8 K in 2 starts
Moneyline (ML): Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Dodgers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-185) | Dodgers -1.5 (+150)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Padres at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 3, Dodgers 2
The PADRES (+120) are worth a look as short ‘dogs in this decisive Game 5.
Backing the veteran Darvish against the Dodgers (-145) is a good move, especially with the rookie Yamamoto making just his 2nd career postseason start. He likely won’t have a very long leash, and the L.A. bullpen used 7 pitchers in the Game 4 win, so its bullpen is a little more taxed than San Diego’s.
The Padres +1.5 (-185) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s quite expensive. The risk is just too great for the small reward if you require insurance and just can’t back the underdog straight up.
PASS.
UNDER 8 (-115) might be the best play on the board in Game 5.
We should have a lot of nerves all around, and both of these pitches are capable of throwing a lot of donuts. If they don’t, neither manager is likely to hesitate to go another way, similar to Game 4 where no pitcher lasted very long if things started going south.
We have had a lot of offense in this series, with the Dodgers averaging 5.4 runs per game (RPG), and the Padres going for 5.3 RPG. While that seems to scream Over, this is an elimination game for both teams, and everyone should be a bit on the tight side.
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