Florida at Tennessee odds, picks and predictions

The Florida Gators (3-2, 1-1 SEC) take on the Tennessee Volunteers (4-1, 1-1) at Neyland Stadium Saturday. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Florida vs. Tennessee odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

The Gators chomped down on Central Florida with a 24-13 victory as 1-point dogs last week. QB Graham Mertz was 19-for-23 for 179 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs. Six rushers combined for 130 yards on the ground against UCF. Florida has won 3 of 4 after a bad loss to Miami to open the year.

Tennessee, No. 9, in the US LBM Coaches Poll, laid an egg against Arkansas in a 19-14 defeat. The Vols were 14-point favorites and ended their 4-game win and cover streak to open the campaign. RB Dylan Sampson was fantastic on the ground with 22 rushes for 140 yards and 2 scores. QB Nico Iamaleava left a lot to be desired through the air, though, going 17-for-29 for 158 yards.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

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Florida at Tennessee odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at Friday at 5:51 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Florida +475 (bet $100 to win $475) | Tennessee -650 (bet $650 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Florida +14.5 (-110) | Tennessee -14.5 (-110)
• Over/Under (O/U): 56.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Florida at Tennessee picks and predictions

Prediction

Tennessee 28, Florida 14

These teams met in Gainesville last year, and the Gators won 29-16 as 4.5-point dogs. Mertz was 19-for-24 for 166 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs, and they largely relied on the ground game. I look for a similar formula, but for the Vols to prevail.

Forego the ML and take MONTRELL JOHNSON OVER 54.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115). He had 54 last week, but this cashes in 3 of the other 4 games this season — including against Miami. He went for 11-106-1 in that game.

I like FLORIDA +14.5 (-110) here as they have been gathering momentum. They’ve won 3 of 4 and covered in the last 2. Meanwhile, Tennessee has looked vulnerable.

This total is too high for me. As I mentioned, the Vols have been vulnerable. They’ve scored 14 and 25 in the last 2 weeks. Now those games were on the road, but I don’t see too much of a correction with their home cooking. Both teams are 3-2 O/U with each cashing Unders in their last game.

Take the UNDER 56.5 (-110).

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