ALDS Game 5: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions
By Skip Snow,
17 hours ago
The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians meet Saturday to wrap up their best-of-5 ALDS and determine who will move on to face the New York Yankees in the ALCS. Saturday’s 1st pitch at Progressive Field is slated for 1:08 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’sMLB odds around the Tigers vs. Guardiansodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: Tied 2-2 | Regular-season series: Cleveland won 7-6
Detroit took Games 2 and 3 of this series, but Cleveland forced this Game 5 with a 5-4 victory Thursday in Detroit. The Tigers are looking to avoid losing back to bac games for just the 2nd time since Sept. 5. Detroit’s late-season surge and early playoff run has included 15 wins in the club’s last 20 road games.
Cleveland is 1-3 over its last 4 home games, but that stands as more of an anomaly when viewed against the Guardian’s 50-30 regular-season mark at Progressive Field. Cleveland has slashed a mere .214/.270/.336 (.605 OPS) in this series and owns a lackluster .660 OPS since Sept. 4.
Tigers at Guardians projected starters
LHP Tarik Skubal vs. LHP Matthew Boyd
Skubal (18-4, 2.39 ERA) made 31 starts in the regular season. He authored a 0.92 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 across 192 innings.
Last outing: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 3-0 win at Guardians Monday
Career vs. Guardians (regular season): 2-2, 3.46 ERA (41 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 K
Per ESPN, has held current Cleveland batters to an aggregate .564 OPS
Has pitched 13 scoreless innings in the 2024 postseason; dating back to Sept. 12, has allowed 2 runs over his last 31 innings
Boyd (2-2, 2.72 ERA) made 8 starts in the regular season. He logged a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 39 2/3 innings.
Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 3-0 home loss vs. Tigers Monday
Career vs. Tigers (regular season): 0-0, 0.00 ERA (4 IP), 0 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 2 relief outings in 2022
Pitched for the Tigers from 2015-23
Began season on IL with elbow injury before making his Cleveland debut Aug. 13
Moneyline: Tigers -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Guardians +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers -1.5 (+155) | Guardians +1.5 (-190)
Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Tigers at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Tigers 5, Guardians 2
Skubal is the talent difference in this matchup. And while Boyd-plus-Cleveland bullpen is not a bad counter, the Detroit port-sider has the stamina, stuff, and competitiveness to carry a large part of this eventual result.
The lefty-lefty matchup is a net gain for Cleveland: Detroit has a bottom-5 offense against southpaws. But the Bengals are going just slightly better with the bats. That hasn’t always popped in this ALDS that has seen them go 4-for-34 with runners in scoring position. But the Tigers are doing what they need to do to create traffic on the bases.
The margin here is razor-thin, but DETROIT (-120) is the value side of this contest.
More juice is added to the equation here, and the betting value is negated. PASS.
The run total here is ultra-low because of the particulars on the mound, including a lockdown Guardians relief corps. But there are enough hidden scoring upside factors that the Over is a lean.
Much will be made about both starting hurlers going on 4-days’ rest. Yes, their numbers take a slight hit when looking at career splits, but in Skubal’s case, he has pitched frequently on such rest in 2024 and his 2023-24 numbers on short rest show marked improvement over his earlier years.
Where a little offense comes into the equation would be in Cleveland potentially seeing Skubal a 3rd time through the order. The Guardians have exhibited a better-than-average uptick in those situations. Add in both teams hitting change-ups with decent production (both starters usually feature a lot of changes) and the Tigers having improved numbers against fly-ball pitchers (which Boyd is), and there are enough reasons to tilt this one toward the OVER 6 (-105).
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