NLCS Game 1: New York Mets at LA Dodgers odds, picks and predictions
By Ryan Dodson,
6 hours ago
The New York Mets and LA Dodgers open up the National League Championship Series Sunday. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is slated for 8:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’sMLB odds around the Mets vs. Dodgersodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: 0-0 | Regular-season series: Dodgers won 4-2
The Mets stunned the Philadelphia Phillies 3-1 in their NLDS matchup. SS Francisco Lindor reestablished himself as a superstar this season, and he crowned that jewel with a go-ahead grand slam in the 6th inning of Game 4 to lift the Mets in a series they were dogs in.
The Dodgers came back from a 2-1 deficit to dispatch the San Diego Padres in 5 games. Yes, they have the best team money can buy, but give them credit. They won the final 2 games by a combined score of 10-0 with an injury-ridden pitching staff. OF Teoscar Hernandez was 6-for-18 (.333) with 2 homers and 7 RBIs in the series.
Mets at Dodgers projected starters
RHP Kodai Senga vs. RHP Jack Flaherty
Senga (1-0, 3.38 ERA) made 1 start in the regular season. He had a 0.56 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 15.2 K/9 across 5 1/3 innings.
Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 6-2 win at Phillies Oct. 5 in Game 1 of NLDS
1 career start vs. Dodgers: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 9 K in 5-1 home loss July 15, 2023
Flaherty (13-7, 3.17 ERA) made 28 starts in the regular season with the Detroit Tigers and Dodgers. He had a 1.07 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 162 innings.
Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 10-2 home loss vs. Padres Oct. 6 in Game 2 of NLDS
1 career start vs. Mets: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 5-4 road win in 10 innings June 13, 2019, with St. Louis Cardinals
Moneyline: Mets +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Dodgers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-165) | Dodgers -1.5 (+140)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Mets at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 6, Dodgers 5
The Mets took 2 of 3 in LA early in the year, but the Dodgers won the last 4 meetings by a combined 28-5. The Dodgers could go with Flaherty or RHP Walker Buehler here, and neither of them provide much confidence. The Dodgers could absolutely win a slugfest, but for the price, I’m taking the METS +135.
The 2 games the Padres won against the Dodgers last series? Buehler allowed 6 ER, and Flaherty was dropping F bombs on the way to a 10-2 loss. Flaherty has been very pedestrian in his postseason career at 1-4 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 30 1/3 IP.
I’m taking FRANCISCO LINDOR OVER 1.5 H+R+RBIs (-120). He is 0-for-5 lifetime against Flaherty and 1-for-2 with a homer off Buehler. The way he’s swinging the bat, that feels like a bargain.
With this pitching matchup, we’re going Over. The Dodgers are 6-3-1 O/U in their last 10 and 3-1-1 in their last series. The Mets went 3-1 O/U in their division series. The wind is also slated to be blowing out at 9 mph.
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